IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natene/v6y2021i3d10.1038_s41560-020-00758-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extending energy system modelling to include extreme weather risks and application to hurricane events in Puerto Rico

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey A. Bennett

    (University of Virginia)

  • Claire N. Trevisan

    (University of Virginia)

  • Joseph F. DeCarolis

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Cecilio Ortiz-García

    (University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez)

  • Marla Pérez-Lugo

    (University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez)

  • Bevin T. Etienne

    (University of Virginia)

  • Andres F. Clarens

    (University of Virginia)

Abstract

Energy system optimization models often incorporate climate change impacts to examine different energy futures and draw insights that inform policy. However, increased risk of extreme weather events from climate change has proven more difficult to model. Here, we present an energy system optimization model that incorporates hurricane risks by combining storm probabilities with infrastructure fragility curves, and demonstrate its utility in the context of Puerto Rico, an island territory of the United States that had its energy system severely damaged by Hurricane Maria in 2017. The model assesses the potential to change grid architecture, fuel mix and grid hardening measures considering hurricane impacts as well as climate mitigation policies. When hurricane trends are included, 2040 electricity cost projections increase by 32% based on historical hurricane frequencies and by 82% for increased hurricane frequencies. Transitioning to renewables and natural gas reduces costs and emissions independent of climate mitigation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey A. Bennett & Claire N. Trevisan & Joseph F. DeCarolis & Cecilio Ortiz-García & Marla Pérez-Lugo & Bevin T. Etienne & Andres F. Clarens, 2021. "Extending energy system modelling to include extreme weather risks and application to hurricane events in Puerto Rico," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 240-249, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:6:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1038_s41560-020-00758-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-00758-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-00758-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41560-020-00758-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Xu, Yongan & Duong, Duy & Xu, Hualong, 2023. "Attention! Predicting crude oil prices from the perspective of extreme weather," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Perera, A.T.D. & Hong, Tianzhen, 2023. "Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Yang, Jaemo & Sengupta, Manajit & Xie, Yu & Shin, Hyeyum Hailey, 2023. "Developing a 20-year high-resolution wind data set for Puerto Rico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    5. Sahoo, Somadutta & van Stralen, Joost N.P. & Zuidema, Christian & Sijm, Jos & Yamu, Claudia & Faaij, André, 2022. "Regionalization of a national integrated energy system model: A case study of the northern Netherlands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    6. Coles, Daniel & Wray, Bevan & Stevens, Rob & Crawford, Scott & Pennock, Shona & Miles, Jon, 2023. "Impacts of tidal stream power on energy system security: An Isle of Wight case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    7. Wang, Zhaoqi & Zhang, Lu & Tang, Wei & Chen, Ying & Shen, Chen, 2022. "Equilibrium allocation strategy of multiple ESSs considering the economics and restoration capability in DNs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    8. Mao, Ding & Wang, Peng & Fang, Yi-Ping & Ni, Long, 2024. "Securing heat-supply against seismic risks: A two-staged framework for assessing vulnerability and economic impacts in district heating networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    9. Perera, A.T.D. & Khayatian, F. & Eggimann, S. & Orehounig, K. & Halgamuge, Saman, 2022. "Quantifying the climate and human-system-driven uncertainties in energy planning by using GANs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    10. Hanif, Sarmad & Mukherjee, Monish & Poudel, Shiva & Yu, Min Gyung & Jinsiwale, Rohit A. & Hardy, Trevor D. & Reeve, Hayden M., 2023. "Analyzing at-scale distribution grid response to extreme temperatures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    11. Gururaghav Raman & Gurupraanesh Raman & Jimmy Chih-Hsien Peng, 2022. "Resilience of urban public electric vehicle charging infrastructure to flooding," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    12. Zhang, Xiaogang & Jin, Chao & Zhang, Decheng & Zhang, Chengpeng & Ranjith, P.G. & Yuan, Yong, 2023. "Carbon dioxide flow behaviour in macro-scale bituminous coal: An experimental determination of the influence of effective stress," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    13. Ceferino, Luis & Lin, Ning & Xi, Dazhi, 2023. "Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    14. Chen, Hao & Jin, Lu & Wang, Mingming & Guo, Lin & Wu, Jingwen, 2023. "How will power outages affect the national economic growth: Evidence from 152 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Farhad Billimoria & Filiberto Fele & Iacopo Savelli & Thomas Morstyn & Malcolm McCulloch, 2023. "An Insurance Paradigm for Improving Power System Resilience via Distributed Investment," Papers 2302.01456, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:6:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1038_s41560-020-00758-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.