Uncertainty-based optimal energy retrofit methodology for building heat electrification with enhanced energy flexibility and climate adaptability

To reach net zero emissions by 2050, the UK government relies heavily on heat degasification in buildings by using heat pump technology. However, existing buildings may have terminal radiators that require a higher operating temperature than what heat pumps typically provide. Increasing the size of radiators and thermally insulating building envelopes could be a potential solution, but the feasibility of these practices is uncertain due to space constraints and high retrofit costs. This study investigates the feasibility and potential benefits of incorporating air-source heat pumps into existing gas boiler heating systems to meet heating demands. The proposed probabilistic optimal air-source heat pump design method enhances energy flexibility and climate adaptability, taking into account a wide range of uncertainty sources and multiple flexibility services (e.g., energy and ancillary services). Heating systems of three educational buildings at the University of Cambridge are used as a testbed to assess and validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, under future climate scenarios and projected decreases in heating demand due to climate change. Results indicate that the best retrofit alternative of the hybrid heating system reduces carbon emissions by 88%, total costs by 54% over its lifespan, and has an average payback period of around 3 years. Air-source heat pumps can meet the majority of the heating demand (around 80%) with gas boilers used for “top-up” heating during high demand. Furthermore, air-source heat pumps' design capacity can fulfil future cooling demand even if retrofit optimization is initially focused on meeting heating needs.