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Quad-kernel deep convolutional neural network for intra-hour photovoltaic power forecasting

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  • Ren, Xiaoying
  • Zhang, Fei
  • Zhu, Honglu
  • Liu, Yongqian

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power is highly stochastic and volatile, and PV power forecasting is a key technology to guarantee the safe and economic operation of high-penetration renewable power systems. To improve the accuracy of PV power forecasting, a quad-kernel deep convolutional neural network (QK_CNN) model is proposed to perform intra-hour PV power forecasting for the next four timesteps: four CNNs with different kernel sizes are used to extract different local cross features between sequence elements of four timesteps; a single-kernel CNN is used to further feature extraction of these features, and then the target sequence forecasting results are obtained; global maximum pooling method is used to simplify the feature extraction process and improve model learning efficiency. Operation data from a 26.52 kW PV plant in CentralAustralia is selected as the experimental data. Compared with single-kernel CNN and hybrid models (CNN_LSTM) on 5, 10, and 15 min of resolution data, respectively, the proposed model shows better forecasting performance and is able to explain 96 % to 98 % of the total variation of the forecasted PV power. All these demonstrates that the CNNs with specific design have great potential to handle the task of PV power forecasting as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Ren, Xiaoying & Zhang, Fei & Zhu, Honglu & Liu, Yongqian, 2022. "Quad-kernel deep convolutional neural network for intra-hour photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:323:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922009801
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119682
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    6. Fei Zhang & Xiaoying Ren & Guidong Yang & Shulong Zhang & Yongqian Liu, 2024. "Optimization Method of Multi-Mode Model Predictive Control for Wind Farm Reactive Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Xiaoying Ren & Yongqian Liu & Fei Zhang & Lingfeng Li, 2024. "A Deep Learning Quantile Regression Photovoltaic Power-Forecasting Method under a Priori Knowledge Injection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-25, August.
    8. Niu, Yunbo & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Ziyuan & Luo, Tianrui & Liu, Jingjiang, 2024. "De-Trend First, Attend Next: A Mid-Term PV forecasting system with attention mechanism and encoder–decoder structure," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    9. Fei Zhang & Xiaoying Ren & Yongqian Liu, 2024. "A Refined Wind Power Forecasting Method with High Temporal Resolution Based on Light Convolutional Neural Network Architecture," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-25, March.
    10. Yunzhu Gao & Jun Wang & Lin Guo & Hong Peng, 2024. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Using Nonlinear Spiking Neural P Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    11. Xiaoying Ren & Fei Zhang & Yongrui Sun & Yongqian Liu, 2024. "A Novel Dual-Channel Temporal Convolutional Network for Photovoltaic Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Paletta, Quentin & Hu, Anthony & Arbod, Guillaume & Lasenby, Joan, 2022. "ECLIPSE: Envisioning CLoud Induced Perturbations in Solar Energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    13. Xiaoying Ren & Fei Zhang & Junshuai Yan & Yongqian Liu, 2024. "A Novel Convolutional Neural Net Architecture Based on Incorporating Meteorological Variable Inputs into Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-21, March.

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