IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v302y2021ics0306261921009673.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Geospatial global sensitivity analysis of a heat energy service decarbonisation model of the building stock

Author

Listed:
  • Chambers, Jonathan
  • Zuberi, M.J.S.
  • Streicher, K.N.
  • Patel, Martin K.

Abstract

Decarbonising energy used for space heating and hot water is critical for reaching emission targets. Modelling of thermal energy decarbonisation becomes increasingly complex as additional technology options are included. Spatial aspects become increasingly important when considering heat transport, for example using district heating. This study develops a model for heating energy decarbonisation that makes use of a techno-economic model applied to a large geographic area (Western Switzerland) at high spatial resolution. Global sensitivity analysis is applied to quantify the variance characteristics of the model. Heating energy services provided by retrofits, decentralised heat pumps, and thermal networks are considered. Final energy demand reductions ranges of 70–80% and emissions reductions of 90% were found with levelized costs of providing the heat service of 0.14–0.22CHF/kWh. High sensitivities were found with respect to efficiency parameters (retrofit potentials and seasonal performance factors). The spatial distribution of costs and sensitivities was shown to be highly variable, with a strong correlation with building density. This raises important questions, notably on equitable distribution of energy transition costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Chambers, Jonathan & Zuberi, M.J.S. & Streicher, K.N. & Patel, Martin K., 2021. "Geospatial global sensitivity analysis of a heat energy service decarbonisation model of the building stock," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:302:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921009673
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117592
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921009673
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117592?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chambers, Jonathan & Zuberi, S. & Jibran, M. & Narula, Kapil & Patel, Martin K., 2020. "Spatiotemporal analysis of industrial excess heat supply for district heat networks in Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    2. Girardin, Luc & Marechal, François & Dubuis, Matthias & Calame-Darbellay, Nicole & Favrat, Daniel, 2010. "EnerGis: A geographical information based system for the evaluation of integrated energy conversion systems in urban areas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 830-840.
    3. Orehounig, Kristina & Evins, Ralph & Dorer, Viktor, 2015. "Integration of decentralized energy systems in neighbourhoods using the energy hub approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 277-289.
    4. Sobol′ , I.M, 2001. "Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 271-280.
    5. Rinaldi, Arthur & Soini, Martin Christoph & Streicher, Kai & Patel, Martin K. & Parra, David, 2021. "Decarbonising heat with optimal PV and storage investments: A detailed sector coupling modelling framework with flexible heat pump operation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PB).
    6. Streicher, Kai Nino & Berger, Matthias & Panos, Evangelos & Narula, Kapil & Soini, Martin Christoph & Patel, Martin K., 2021. "Optimal building retrofit pathways considering stock dynamics and climate change impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Zuberi, M. Jibran S. & Bless, Frédéric & Chambers, Jonathan & Arpagaus, Cordin & Bertsch, Stefan S. & Patel, Martin K., 2018. "Excess heat recovery: An invisible energy resource for the Swiss industry sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 390-408.
    8. Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2016. "Does cost optimization approximate the real-world energy transition?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 182-193.
    9. Chambers, Jonathan & Narula, Kapil & Sulzer, Matthias & Patel, Martin K., 2019. "Mapping district heating potential under evolving thermal demand scenarios and technologies: A case study for Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 682-692.
    10. Cozza, Stefano & Chambers, Jonathan & Patel, Martin K., 2020. "Measuring the thermal energy performance gap of labelled residential buildings in Switzerland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Marc Jaxa-Rozen & Evelina Trutnevyte, 2021. "Sources of uncertainty in long-term global scenarios of solar photovoltaic technology," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 266-273, March.
    12. Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Chang, Miguel & Werner, Sven & Svendsen, Svend & Sorknæs, Peter & Thorsen, Jan Eric & Hvelplund, Frede & Mortensen, Bent Ole Gram & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Boje, 2018. "The status of 4th generation district heating: Research and results," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 147-159.
    13. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    14. Unternährer, Jérémy & Moret, Stefano & Joost, Stéphane & Maréchal, François, 2017. "Spatial clustering for district heating integration in urban energy systems: Application to geothermal energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 749-763.
    15. Hansen, Kenneth & Connolly, David & Lund, Henrik & Drysdale, David & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck, 2016. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Identifying the balance between saving heat and supplying heat," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1663-1671.
    16. Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2019. "Distributional trade-offs between regionally equitable and cost-efficient allocation of renewable electricity generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    17. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Werner, S. & Möller, B. & Persson, U. & Boermans, T. & Trier, D. & Østergaard, P.A. & Nielsen, S., 2014. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 475-489.
    18. Persson, U. & Möller, B. & Werner, S., 2014. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Identifying strategic heat synergy regions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 663-681.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Feng & Wang, Xinhe & Hou, Xinting & Han, Cheng & Wu, Mingying & Liu, Zhongbing, 2022. "Variance-based global sensitivity analysis of a hybrid thermoelectric generator fuzzy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    2. Abdulraheem Salaymeh & Irene Peters & Stefan Holler, 2024. "Factoring Building Refurbishment and Climatic Effect into Heat Demand Assessments and Forecasts: Case Study and Open Datasets for Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-21, January.
    3. Aunedi, Marko & Olympios, Andreas V. & Pantaleo, Antonio M. & Markides, Christos N. & Strbac, Goran, 2023. "System-driven design and integration of low-carbon domestic heating technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Xiang & Yilmaz, Selin & Patel, Martin K. & Chambers, Jonathan, 2023. "Techno-economic analysis of fifth-generation district heating and cooling combined with seasonal borehole thermal energy storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    2. Mengting Jiang & Camilo Rindt & David M. J. Smeulders, 2022. "Optimal Planning of Future District Heating Systems—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-38, September.
    3. Nis Bertelsen & Brian Vad Mathiesen, 2020. "EU-28 Residential Heat Supply and Consumption: Historical Development and Status," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Chambers, Jonathan & Zuberi, S. & Jibran, M. & Narula, Kapil & Patel, Martin K., 2020. "Spatiotemporal analysis of industrial excess heat supply for district heat networks in Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    5. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Persson, Urban & Wiechers, Eva & Möller, Bernd & Werner, Sven, 2019. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Heat distribution costs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 604-622.
    7. Chambers, Jonathan & Narula, Kapil & Sulzer, Matthias & Patel, Martin K., 2019. "Mapping district heating potential under evolving thermal demand scenarios and technologies: A case study for Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 682-692.
    8. Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Andersen, Anders N., 2021. "Variable taxes promoting district heating heat pump flexibility," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    9. Golmohamadi, Hessam & Larsen, Kim Guldstrand & Jensen, Peter Gjøl & Hasrat, Imran Riaz, 2022. "Integration of flexibility potentials of district heating systems into electricity markets: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    10. Romanchenko, Dmytro & Odenberger, Mikael & Göransson, Lisa & Johnsson, Filip, 2017. "Impact of electricity price fluctuations on the operation of district heating systems: A case study of district heating in Göteborg, Sweden," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 16-30.
    11. Sommer, Tobias & Sulzer, Matthias & Wetter, Michael & Sotnikov, Artem & Mennel, Stefan & Stettler, Christoph, 2020. "The reservoir network: A new network topology for district heating and cooling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    12. David Maya-Drysdale & Louise Krog Jensen & Brian Vad Mathiesen, 2020. "Energy Vision Strategies for the EU Green New Deal: A Case Study of European Cities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, May.
    13. Gjoka, Kristian & Rismanchi, Behzad & Crawford, Robert H., 2023. "Fifth-generation district heating and cooling systems: A review of recent advancements and implementation barriers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    14. Leurent, Martin, 2019. "Analysis of the district heating potential in French regions using a geographic information system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Connolly, D., 2017. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Quantitative comparison between the electricity, heating, and cooling sectors for different European countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 580-593.
    16. Zhang, Yichi & Xia, Jianjun & Fang, Hao & Zuo, Hetao & Jiang, Yi, 2019. "Roadmap towards clean heating in 2035: Case study of inner Mongolia, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    17. Leurent, Martin & Da Costa, Pascal & Jasserand, Frédéric & Rämä, Miika & Persson, Urban, 2018. "Cost and climate savings through nuclear district heating in a French urban area," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 616-630.
    18. Moreno, Diana & Nielsen, Steffen & Sorknæs, Peter & Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2024. "Exploring the location and use of baseload district heating supply. What can current heat sources tell us about future opportunities?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    19. Möller, Bernd & Wiechers, Eva & Persson, Urban & Grundahl, Lars & Lund, Rasmus Søgaard & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2019. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Towards EU-Wide, local heat supply strategies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 554-564.
    20. Vögele, Stefan & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Kleinebrahm, Max & Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang & Bernhard, Jesse & Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm & Weiss, Annika, 2022. "Dissemination of PV-Battery systems in the German residential sector up to 2050: Technological diffusion from multidisciplinary perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:302:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921009673. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.