IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v206y2017icp267-277.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electricity demand planning forecasts should consider climate non-stationarity to maintain reserve margins during heat waves

Author

Listed:
  • Burillo, Daniel
  • Chester, Mikhail V.
  • Ruddell, Benjamin
  • Johnson, Nathan

Abstract

Climate non-stationarity is a challenge for electric power infrastructure reliability; recordbreaking heat waves significantly affect peak demand [1], lower contingency capacities, and expose cities to risk of blackouts due to component failures and security threats. The United States’ electric grid operates safely for a wide range of load, weather, and power quality conditions. Projected increases in ambient air temperatures could, however, create operating conditions that place the grid outside the boundaries of current reliability tolerances. Advancements in long-term forecasting, including projections of rising air temperatures and more severe heat waves, present opportunities to advance risk management methods for long-term infrastructure planning. This is particularly evident in the US Southwest—a relatively hot region expected to experience significant temperature increases affecting electric loads, generation, and delivery systems. Generation capacity is typically built to meet the 90th percentile (T90) hottest peak demand, plus an additional reserve margin of least 15%, but that may not be sufficient to ensure reliable power services if air temperatures are higher than expected. The problem with this T90 planning approach is that it requires a stationary climate to be completely effective. In reality, annual temperature differences can have more than a 15% effect on system performance. Current long-term infrastructure planning and risk management processes are biased climate data choices that can significantly underestimate peak demand, overestimate generation capacity, and result in major power outages during heat waves.

Suggested Citation

  • Burillo, Daniel & Chester, Mikhail V. & Ruddell, Benjamin & Johnson, Nathan, 2017. "Electricity demand planning forecasts should consider climate non-stationarity to maintain reserve margins during heat waves," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 267-277.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:206:y:2017:i:c:p:267-277
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261917311571
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.141?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sailor, David J, 2001. "Relating residential and commercial sector electricity loads to climate—evaluating state level sensitivities and vulnerabilities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 645-657.
    2. Heydarian-Forushani, E. & Golshan, M.E.H. & Siano, Pierluigi, 2017. "Evaluating the benefits of coordinated emerging flexible resources in electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 142-154.
    3. Sailor, David J. & Muñoz, J.Ricardo, 1997. "Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A.—Methodology and results for eight states," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 987-998.
    4. Raineri, R. & Rios, S. & Schiele, D., 2006. "Technical and economic aspects of ancillary services markets in the electric power industry: an international comparison," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(13), pages 1540-1555, September.
    5. Janko, Samantha A. & Arnold, Michael R. & Johnson, Nathan G., 2016. "Implications of high-penetration renewables for ratepayers and utilities in the residential solar photovoltaic (PV) market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 37-51.
    6. Armendáriz, M. & Heleno, M. & Cardoso, G. & Mashayekh, S. & Stadler, M. & Nordström, L., 2017. "Coordinated microgrid investment and planning process considering the system operator," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 132-140.
    7. Ruddell, Benjamin L. & Salamanca, Francisco & Mahalov, Alex, 2014. "Reducing a semiarid city’s peak electrical demand using distributed cold thermal energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 35-44.
    8. A. Greening, Lorna & Greene, David L. & Difiglio, Carmen, 2000. "Energy efficiency and consumption -- the rebound effect -- a survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 389-401, June.
    9. Brijs, Tom & De Jonghe, Cedric & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Belmans, Ronnie, 2017. "Interactions between the design of short-term electricity markets in the CWE region and power system flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 36-51.
    10. Aghaei, Jamshid & Alizadeh, Mohammad-Iman, 2013. "Demand response in smart electricity grids equipped with renewable energy sources: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 64-72.
    11. Smith, Claire & Levermore, Geoff, 2008. "Designing urban spaces and buildings to improve sustainability and quality of life in a warmer world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4558-4562, December.
    12. Janet L. Reyna & Mikhail V. Chester, 2015. "The Growth of Urban Building Stock: Unintended Lock-in and Embedded Environmental Effects," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 19(4), pages 524-537, August.
    13. Matthew D. Bartos & Mikhail V. Chester, 2015. "Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 748-752, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dampeyrou, Charles & Goichon, Antoine & Ghienne, Martin & Tschannen, Valentin & Schaack, Sofiane, 2024. "Unsupervised separation of the thermosensitive contribution in the power consumption at a country scale," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    2. Guo, Siyue & Yan, Da & Hong, Tianzhen & Xiao, Chan & Cui, Ying, 2019. "A novel approach for selecting typical hot-year (THY) weather data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1634-1648.
    3. Marwan, Marwan, 2020. "The impact of probability of electricity price spike and outside temperature to define total expected cost for air conditioning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Craig, Michael T. & Cohen, Stuart & Macknick, Jordan & Draxl, Caroline & Guerra, Omar J. & Sengupta, Manajit & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Brancucci, Carlo, 2018. "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 255-267.
    5. Gautier, Antoine & Wetter, Michael & Sulzer, Matthias, 2022. "Resilient cooling through geothermal district energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    6. Oikonomou, Konstantinos & Tarroja, Brian & Kern, Jordan & Voisin, Nathalie, 2022. "Core process representation in power system operational models: Gaps, challenges, and opportunities for multisector dynamics research," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    7. Burillo, Daniel & Chester, Mikhail V. & Pincetl, Stephanie & Fournier, Eric D. & Reyna, Janet, 2019. "Forecasting peak electricity demand for Los Angeles considering higher air temperatures due to climate change," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1-9.
    8. Murphy, Sinnott & Lavin, Luke & Apt, Jay, 2020. "Resource adequacy implications of temperature-dependent electric generator availability," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    9. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Taha Chaiechi & ABM Rabiul Alam Beg, 2018. "The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(7), pages 1263-1297, November.
    10. Burillo, Daniel & Chester, Mikhail V. & Pincetl, Stephanie & Fournier, Eric, 2019. "Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 943-953.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burillo, Daniel & Chester, Mikhail V. & Pincetl, Stephanie & Fournier, Eric, 2019. "Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 943-953.
    2. Burillo, Daniel & Chester, Mikhail V. & Pincetl, Stephanie & Fournier, Eric D. & Reyna, Janet, 2019. "Forecasting peak electricity demand for Los Angeles considering higher air temperatures due to climate change," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1-9.
    3. Viktorija Bobinaite & Artjoms Obushevs & Irina Oleinikova & Andrei Morch, 2018. "Economically Efficient Design of Market for System Services under the Web-of-Cells Architecture," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-29, March.
    4. Yau, Y.H. & Pean, H.L., 2011. "The climate change impact on air conditioner system and reliability in Malaysia—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4939-4949.
    5. Psiloglou, B.E. & Giannakopoulos, C. & Majithia, S. & Petrakis, M., 2009. "Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A comparative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1855-1863.
    6. Ahmed, T. & Muttaqi, K.M. & Agalgaonkar, A.P., 2012. "Climate change impacts on electricity demand in the State of New South Wales, Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 376-383.
    7. Ussama Assad & Muhammad Arshad Shehzad Hassan & Umar Farooq & Asif Kabir & Muhammad Zeeshan Khan & S. Sabahat H. Bukhari & Zain ul Abidin Jaffri & Judit Oláh & József Popp, 2022. "Smart Grid, Demand Response and Optimization: A Critical Review of Computational Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-36, March.
    8. Néstor Santillán-Soto & O. Rafael García-Cueto & Alejandro A. Lambert-Arista & Sara Ojeda-Benítez & Samantha E. Cruz-Sotelo, 2019. "Comparative Analysis of Two Urban Microclimates: Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-11, April.
    9. Li, Xian-Xiang, 2018. "Linking residential electricity consumption and outdoor climate in a tropical city," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 734-743.
    10. Vu, D.H. & Muttaqi, K.M. & Agalgaonkar, A.P., 2015. "A variance inflation factor and backward elimination based robust regression model for forecasting monthly electricity demand using climatic variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 385-394.
    11. Gupta, Eshita, 2012. "Global warming and electricity demand in the rapidly growing city of Delhi: A semi-parametric variable coefficient approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1407-1421.
    12. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2008. "The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: A threshold panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2705-2721, September.
    13. Hekkenberg, M. & Benders, R.M.J. & Moll, H.C. & Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M., 2009. "Indications for a changing electricity demand pattern: The temperature dependence of electricity demand in the Netherlands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1542-1551, April.
    14. Daniel C. Steinberg & Bryan K. Mignone & Jordan Macknick & Yinong Sun & Kelly Eurek & Andrew Badger & Ben Livneh & Kristen Averyt, 2020. "Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 125-139, January.
    15. Son, Hyojoo & Kim, Changwan, 2017. "Short-term forecasting of electricity demand for the residential sector using weather and social variables," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 200-207.
    16. Kheiri, Farshad & Haberl, Jeff S. & Baltazar, Juan-Carlos, 2023. "Impact of outdoor humidity conditions on building energy performance and environmental footprint in the degree days-based climate classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    17. Porse, Erik & Derenski, Joshua & Gustafson, Hannah & Elizabeth, Zoe & Pincetl, Stephanie, 2016. "Structural, geographic, and social factors in urban building energy use: Analysis of aggregated account-level consumption data in a megacity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 179-192.
    18. Wang, Zhaohua & Lu, Milin & Wang, Jian-Cai, 2014. "Direct rebound effect on urban residential electricity use: An empirical study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 124-132.
    19. Sailor, D.J & Pavlova, A.A, 2003. "Air conditioning market saturation and long-term response of residential cooling energy demand to climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 941-951.
    20. Hekkenberg, M. & Moll, H.C. & Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot, 2009. "Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1797-1806.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:206:y:2017:i:c:p:267-277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.