IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/alo/isipdp/14-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of development on the climate sensitivity of electricity demand in India

Author

Listed:
  • Eshita Gupta

    (Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi
    Institute of Economic Growth)

Abstract

The climate sensitivity of electricity demand in India is likely to be highly sensitive to growth in income. Thus, both intensive and extensive adjustments in cooling and heating will play an important role in determining future climate change impacts on electricity demand. This chapter utilizes a national level panel dataset of 28 Indian states for the period 2005-2009 to show that (1) electricity demand is positively related to temperatures in summers and negatively related to temperatures in winters; (2) the effect of temperature increase on demand in summers is higher in a hotter climate as people adapt with the use of higher cooling equipment whereas there is a higher negative response to temperature increase in winters in colder climates as people adapt using higher heating equipment; (3) the effects of both the hotter and the colder climates on electricity demand are expected to be more pronounced at the higher income levels. The preferred estimates indicate that climate change will increase electricity demand by 6.9 percent with 4 percent p.a. GDP growth and 8.6 percent with 6 percent p.a. GDP growth in 2030 over the reference scenario of no climate change. This re�ects the fact that the estimated marginal eect of a hotter climate is greater when income is higher. The results suggest that over 50 percent of the climate change impacts will be due to extensive adjustments and that electricity demand models that do not account for extensive adjustments are likely to underestimate the climate change impacts on electricity demand especially in developing countries like India where the current penetration of air- conditioning equipment is very low.

Suggested Citation

  • Eshita Gupta, 2014. "The Impact of development on the climate sensitivity of electricity demand in India," Discussion Papers 14-08, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    • Handle: RePEc:alo:isipdp:14-08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.isid.ac.in/~epu/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/dp14-08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guilherme Depaula & Robert Mendelsohn, 2010. "Development And The Impact Of Climate Change On Energy Demand: Evidence From Brazil," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(03), pages 187-208.
    2. Catherine Wolfram & Orie Shelef & Paul Gertler, 2012. "How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 119-138, Winter.
    3. Sailor, D.J & Pavlova, A.A, 2003. "Air conditioning market saturation and long-term response of residential cooling energy demand to climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 941-951.
    4. Sailor, David J, 2001. "Relating residential and commercial sector electricity loads to climate—evaluating state level sensitivities and vulnerabilities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 645-657.
    5. Sivak, Michael, 2009. "Potential energy demand for cooling in the 50 largest metropolitan areas of the world: Implications for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1382-1384, April.
    6. Sailor, David J. & Muñoz, J.Ricardo, 1997. "Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A.—Methodology and results for eight states," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 987-998.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eshita Gupta, 2014. "The Effect of development on the climate sensitivity of electricity demand in India," Discussion Papers 14-05, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    2. Eshita Gupta, 2016. "The Effect Of Development On The Climate Sensitivity Of Electricity Demand In India," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-49, May.
    3. Burillo, Daniel & Chester, Mikhail V. & Pincetl, Stephanie & Fournier, Eric D. & Reyna, Janet, 2019. "Forecasting peak electricity demand for Los Angeles considering higher air temperatures due to climate change," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1-9.
    4. Jianhua Huang & Kevin Robert Gurney, 2016. "Impact of climate change on U.S. building energy demand: sensitivity to spatiotemporal scales, balance point temperature, and population distribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 171-185, July.
    5. Reza Fazeli & Brynhildur Davidsdottir & Jonas Hlynur Hallgrimsson, 2016. "Climate Impact On Energy Demand For Space Heating In Iceland," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-23, May.
    6. Li, Xian-Xiang, 2018. "Linking residential electricity consumption and outdoor climate in a tropical city," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 734-743.
    7. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Mansur, Erin T., 2014. "Measuring climatic impacts on energy consumption: A review of the empirical literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 522-530.
    8. Li, Danny H.W. & Yang, Liu & Lam, Joseph C., 2012. "Impact of climate change on energy use in the built environment in different climate zones – A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 103-112.
    9. Liz Wachs & Shweta Singh, 2020. "Projecting the urban energy demand for Indiana, USA, in 2050 and 2080," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1949-1966, December.
    10. Gupta, Eshita, 2012. "Global warming and electricity demand in the rapidly growing city of Delhi: A semi-parametric variable coefficient approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1407-1421.
    11. Hekkenberg, M. & Benders, R.M.J. & Moll, H.C. & Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M., 2009. "Indications for a changing electricity demand pattern: The temperature dependence of electricity demand in the Netherlands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1542-1551, April.
    12. Daniel C. Steinberg & Bryan K. Mignone & Jordan Macknick & Yinong Sun & Kelly Eurek & Andrew Badger & Ben Livneh & Kristen Averyt, 2020. "Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 125-139, January.
    13. Marilyn Brown & Matt Cox & Ben Staver & Paul Baer, 2016. "Modeling climate-driven changes in U.S. buildings energy demand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 29-44, January.
    14. Thatcher, Marcus J., 2007. "Modelling changes to electricity demand load duration curves as a consequence of predicted climate change for Australia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1647-1659.
    15. Hekkenberg, M. & Moll, H.C. & Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot, 2009. "Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1797-1806.
    16. Marilyn A. Brown & Matt Cox & Ben Staver & Paul Baer, 2016. "Modeling climate-driven changes in U.S. buildings energy demand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 29-44, January.
    17. Sayanti Mukherjee & Roshanak Nateghi, 2019. "A Data‐Driven Approach to Assessing Supply Inadequacy Risks Due to Climate‐Induced Shifts in Electricity Demand," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(3), pages 673-694, March.
    18. Yau, Y.H. & Pean, H.L., 2011. "The climate change impact on air conditioner system and reliability in Malaysia—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4939-4949.
    19. Harish, Santosh & Singh, Nishmeet & Tongia, Rahul, 2020. "Impact of temperature on electricity demand: Evidence from Delhi and Indian states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    20. Psiloglou, B.E. & Giannakopoulos, C. & Majithia, S. & Petrakis, M., 2009. "Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A comparative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1855-1863.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:alo:isipdp:14-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Debasis Mishra (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isindin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.