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A meta-analysis of carbon capture and storage technology assessments: Understanding the driving factors of variability in cost estimates

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  • Akbilgic, Oguz
  • Doluweera, Ganesh
  • Mahmoudkhani, Maryam
  • Bergerson, Joule

Abstract

The estimated cost of reducing carbon emissions through the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in power systems vary by a factor of five or more across studies published over the past 8years. The objective of this paper is to understand the contribution of techno-economic variables and modeling assumptions to explain the large variability in the published international literature on cost of avoided CO2 (CACO2) using statistical methods. We carry out a meta-analysis of the variations in reported CACO2 for coal and natural gas power plants with CCS. We use regression and correlation analysis to explain the variation in reported CACO2. The regression models built in our analysis have strong predictive power (R2>0.90) for all power plant types. We find that the parameters that have high variability and large influence on the value of CACO2 estimated are levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) penalty, capital cost of CCS, and efficiency penalty. In addition, the selection of baseline technologies and more attention and transparency around the calculation of capital costs will reduce the variability across studies to better reflect technology uncertainty and improve comparability across studies.

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  • Akbilgic, Oguz & Doluweera, Ganesh & Mahmoudkhani, Maryam & Bergerson, Joule, 2015. "A meta-analysis of carbon capture and storage technology assessments: Understanding the driving factors of variability in cost estimates," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 11-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:159:y:2015:i:c:p:11-18
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.08.056
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Viebahn & Emile J. L. Chappin, 2018. "Scrutinising the Gap between the Expected and Actual Deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage—A Bibliometric Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-45, September.
    2. Valentina Kashintseva & Wadim Strielkowski & Justas Streimikis & Tatiana Veynbender, 2018. "Consumer Attitudes towards Industrial CO 2 Capture and Storage Products and Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-14, October.
    3. van Beek, Andries & Groote Schaarsberg, Mirjam & Borm, Peter & Hamers, Herbert & Veneman, Mattijs, 2023. "Cost Allocation in CO2 Transport for CCUS Hubs : A Multi-Actor Perspective," Other publications TiSEM 4f99c444-6676-4887-b7b8-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. van Beek, Andries, 2023. "Solutions in multi-actor projects with collaboration and strategic incentives," Other publications TiSEM 3739c498-5edb-442f-87d8-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Bernardo Llamas & Álvaro Hernández & Luis Felipe Mazadiego & Juan Pous, 2016. "Economic modeling of the CO 2 transportation phase and its application to the Duero Basin, Spain," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(5), pages 648-661, October.
    6. Alexey Cherepovitsyn & Sergey Fedoseev & Pavel Tcvetkov & Ksenia Sidorova & Andrzej Kraslawski, 2018. "Potential of Russian Regions to Implement CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-22, June.
    7. van Beek, Andries & Groote Schaarsberg, Mirjam & Borm, Peter & Hamers, Herbert & Veneman, Mattijs, 2023. "Cost Allocation in CO2 Transport for CCUS Hubs : A Multi-Actor Perspective," Discussion Paper 2023-008, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. Sascha Samadi, 2017. "The Social Costs of Electricity Generation—Categorising Different Types of Costs and Evaluating Their Respective Relevance," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-37, March.
    9. Shin, Jungwoo & Lee, Chul-Yong & Kim, Hongbum, 2016. "Technology and demand forecasting for carbon capture and storage technology in South Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-11.
    10. Bagheri, Mehdi & Guevara, Zeus & Alikarami, Mohammad & Kennedy, Christopher A. & Doluweera, Ganesh, 2018. "Green growth planning: A multi-factor energy input-output analysis of the Canadian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 708-720.

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