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How sensitive are optimal fully renewable power systems to technology cost uncertainty?

Author

Listed:
  • Behrang Shirizadeh

    (CIRED)

  • Quentin Perrier

    (CIRED, I4CE)

  • Philippe Quirion

    (CIRED, CNRS)

Abstract

Many studies have demonstrated the feasibility of fully renewable power systems in various countries and regions. Yet the future costs of key technologies are highly uncertain and little is known about the robustness of a renewable power system to these uncertainties. We build 315 long-term cost scenarios on the basis of recent prospective studies, varying the costs of key technologies. We model the optimal renewable power system for France over 18 meteorological years, simultaneously optimizing investment and dispatch. Our results show that the optimal energy mix is highly sensitive to cost assumptions: the installed capacity in PV, onshore wind and power-to-gas varies by a factor of 5, batteries and offshore wind even more. Nevertheless, we have a robust result showing that the cost of a 100% renewable power system will not be higher than today. Finally, we show that the cost of not installing the absolutely ‘optimal’ mix is limited. Contrary to current estimates of increasing integration costs, this indicates that renewable technologies will become by and large substitutable.

Suggested Citation

  • Behrang Shirizadeh & Quentin Perrier & Philippe Quirion, 2019. "How sensitive are optimal fully renewable power systems to technology cost uncertainty?," Policy Papers 2019.04, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:fae:ppaper:2019.04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. de Guibert, Paul & Shirizadeh, Behrang & Quirion, Philippe, 2020. "Variable time-step: A method for improving computational tractability for energy system models with long-term storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    2. Ayat-allah Bouramdane & Alexis Tantet & Philippe Drobinski, 2020. "Adequacy of Renewable Energy Mixes with Concentrated Solar Power and Photovoltaic in Morocco: Impact of Thermal Storage and Cost," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-34, September.
    3. Shirizadeh, Behrang & Quirion, Philippe, 2022. "Do multi-sector energy system optimization models need hourly temporal resolution? A case study with an investment and dispatch model applied to France," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    4. Alexis Tantet & Marc Stéfanon & Philippe Drobinski & Jordi Badosa & Silvia Concettini & Anna Cretì & Claudia D’Ambrosio & Dimitri Thomopulos & Peter Tankov, 2019. "e 4 clim 1.0: The Energy for a Climate Integrated Model: Description and Application to Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-37, November.
    5. Shirizadeh, Behrang & Quirion, Philippe, 2022. "The importance of renewable gas in achieving carbon-neutrality: Insights from an energy system optimization model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    6. Shirizadeh, Behrang & Quirion, Philippe, 2021. "Low-carbon options for the French power sector: What role for renewables, nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Ayat-allah Bouramdane & Alexis Tantet & Philippe Drobinski, 2021. "Utility-Scale PV-Battery versus CSP-Thermal Storage in Morocco: Storage and Cost Effect under Penetration Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-43, August.
    8. Behrang Shirizadeh & Philippe Quirion, 2023. "Long-term optimization of the hydrogen-electricity nexus in France," Post-Print hal-04347126, HAL.
    9. Ayat-Allah Bouramdane & Alexis Tantet & Philippe Drobinski, 2021. "Utility-Scale PV-Battery versus CSP-Thermal Storage in Morocco: Storage and Cost Effect under Penetration Scenarios," Post-Print hal-03344439, HAL.
    10. Maimó-Far, Aina & Homar, Víctor & Tantet, Alexis & Drobinski, Philippe, 2024. "The trade-off between socio-environmental awareness and renewable penetration targets in energy transition roadmaps," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    11. Shirizadeh, Behrang & Quirion, Philippe, 2023. "Long-term optimization of the hydrogen-electricity nexus in France: Green, blue, or pink hydrogen?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    12. Behrang Shirizadeh, 2020. "Carbon-neutral future with sector-coupling; relative role of different mitigation options in energy sector," Working Papers 2020.19, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Power system modelling; Variable renewables; Electricity storage; Robust decision making;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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