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Pre-Crisis Determinants of Tourism Resilience

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  • Marcus Roller

Abstract

In this study, I provide a location choice model incorporating five pre-crisis determinants for tourists' destination choice to study the impact of these determinants on the resilience of tourism. The determinants are the kind of destination (rural vs. urban), the pre-crisis origin country specific attractiveness of the destination, the infrastructure size, the density, and the local culture. I estimate the effect of these determinants on the recovery of hotel overnight stays during the COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland. I find that urban areas had an up to 75% percent lower recovery level. Half of this difference is due to their pre-crisis specific attractiveness for international tourists. This implies that a miss-match between long-run local touristic capital and domestic demand preferences prevents destinations from substituting the missing international tourists with domestic tourists. While infrastructure size affects the resilience ambiguously, density weakens the resilience in cities. Culture does not play a role if there are no local COVID-19 policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Roller, 2022. "Pre-Crisis Determinants of Tourism Resilience," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper39, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdv:wpaper:credresearchpaper39
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    File URL: https://repec.vwiit.ch/cred/CREDResearchPaper39.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism; COVID-19; resilience; structure; estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z3 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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