IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/anture/v108y2024ics0160738324000902.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Carbon price shocks and tourism demand

Author

Listed:
  • Boto-García, David
  • Albert, Juan Francisco
  • Gómez-Fernández, Nerea

Abstract

This article studies the effect of carbon prices on tourism demand. We adopt a novel identification strategy that exploits carbon price shocks induced by policy events on the supply of emission allowances in the European Trading System (EU ETS). Using monthly panel data on tourism arrivals and stays in 26 European countries between 2005 and 2019, and applying panel local projections, we find there is a ‘V’ shaped pattern. Impulse response estimates indicate that there is a transitory drop in arrivals of 2.5 percentage points in the first three months after a carbon price shock, but demand quicky reverts to the trend after six months. Our findings underscore the dynamic responses of tourism arrivals and stays to carbon regulatory policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Boto-García, David & Albert, Juan Francisco & Gómez-Fernández, Nerea, 2024. "Carbon price shocks and tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:108:y:2024:i:c:s0160738324000902
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2024.103813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160738324000902
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.annals.2024.103813?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    2. Yoshihiro Hamaguchi, 2020. "Do pollution havens restrict tourism-led growth? Achieving sustainable tourism via a mix of environmental and tourism policies," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(7), pages 1175-1196, November.
    3. Brendan Berthold & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Federico Di Pace & Alex Haberis, 2023. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Carbon Pricing: Macro and Micro Evidence," Discussion Papers 2319, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax to meet the U.S. Paris agreement target: The role of firm creation and technology adoption," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    5. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 219-255, February.
    6. Rohan Best & Paul J. Burke & Frank Jotzo, 2020. "Carbon Pricing Efficacy: Cross-Country Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(1), pages 69-94, September.
    7. Natalia Fabra & Mar Reguant, 2014. "Pass-Through of Emissions Costs in Electricity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2872-2899, September.
    8. Angelico, Cristina, 2024. "The green transition and firms' expectations on future prices: Survey evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 519-543.
    9. Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," Working Papers 2021-55, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    10. Robert N. Stavins, 2022. "The Relative Merits of Carbon Pricing Instruments: Taxes versus Trading," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 62-82.
    11. Zhang, Jiekuan & Zhang, Yan, 2018. "Carbon tax, tourism CO2 emissions and economic welfare," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 18-30.
    12. Gilbert E. Metcalf & James H. Stock, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe's Carbon Taxes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 265-286, July.
    13. Daniel Santabárbara & Marta Suárez-Varela, 2022. "Carbon pricing and inflation volatility," Working Papers 2231, Banco de España.
    14. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    15. Mayor, Karen & Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "The impact of the UK aviation tax on carbon dioxide emissions and visitor numbers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 507-513, November.
    16. Hensel, Jannik & Mangiante, Giacomo & Moretti, Luca, 2024. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: Evidence from France," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    17. Raphael Calel & Antoine Dechezleprêtre, 2016. "Environmental Policy and Directed Technological Change: Evidence from the European Carbon Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 173-191, March.
    18. Morlotti, Chiara & Cattaneo, Mattia & Malighetti, Paolo & Redondi, Renato, 2017. "Multi-dimensional price elasticity for leisure and business destinations in the low-cost air transport market: Evidence from easyJet," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 23-34.
    19. Gilbert E. Metcalf & James H. Stock, 2020. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Carbon Taxes," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 101-106, May.
    20. Rivers, Nicholas & Schaufele, Brandon, 2015. "Salience of carbon taxes in the gasoline market," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 23-36.
    21. Brueckner, Jan K. & Kahn, Matthew E. & Nickelsburg, Jerry, 2024. "How do airlines cut fuel usage, reducing their carbon emissions?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    22. Diego R. Känzig & Maximilian Konradt, 2024. "Climate Policy and the Economy: Evidence from Europe’s Carbon Pricing Initiatives," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1081-1124, September.
    23. Markham, Francis & Young, Martin & Reis, Arianne & Higham, James, 2018. "Does carbon pricing reduce air travel? Evidence from the Australian ‘Clean Energy Future’ policy, July 2012 to June 2014," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 206-214.
    24. Jakob de Haan & Rasmus Wiese, 2022. "The impact of product and labour market reform on growth: Evidence for OECD countries based on local projections," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 746-770, June.
    25. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    26. Jiekuan Zhang & Yan Zhang, 2020. "Chinese tourism economic change under carbon tax scenarios," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(7), pages 836-851, April.
    27. Diego R. Känzig, 2023. "The Unequal Economic Consequences of Carbon Pricing," NBER Working Papers 31221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Manfred Lenzen & Ya-Yen Sun & Futu Faturay & Yuan-Peng Ting & Arne Geschke & Arunima Malik, 2018. "The carbon footprint of global tourism," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 522-528, June.
    29. Sarath Divisekera, 2016. "Interdependencies of demand for international air transportation and international tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1191-1206, December.
    30. Fageda, Xavier & Teixidó, Jordi J., 2022. "Pricing carbon in the aviation sector: Evidence from the European emissions trading system," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    31. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    32. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 917-948, May.
    33. Bilotkach, Volodymyr & Lakew, Paulos Ashebir, 2014. "On sources of market power in the airline industry: Panel data evidence from the US airports," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 288-305.
    34. Bai, Yiyi & Okullo, Samuel J., 2023. "Drivers and pass-through of the EU ETS price: Evidence from the power sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    35. Li, Dake & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Wolf, Christian K., 2024. "Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    36. Sun, Ya-Yen & Gossling, Stefan & Zhou, Wanru, 2022. "Does tourism increase or decrease carbon emissions? A systematic review," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    37. Teixidó, Jordi & Verde, Stefano F. & Nicolli, Francesco, 2019. "The impact of the EU Emissions Trading System on low-carbon technological change: The empirical evidence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    38. Sam Meng & Tien Pham, 2017. "The impact of the Australian carbon tax on the tourism industry," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 506-522, May.
    39. Rotaris, Lucia & Giansoldati, Marco & Scorrano, Mariangela, 2020. "Are air travellers willing to pay for reducing or offsetting carbon emissions? Evidence from Italy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 71-84.
    40. Wozny, Florian, 2024. "Tax Incidence in Heterogeneous Markets: The Pass-through of Air Passenger Taxes on Airfares," IZA Discussion Papers 16783, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    41. Wang, Xuhui & Xi, Haonan, 2023. "Carbon mitigation policy and international tourism. Does the European Union Emissions Trading System hit international tourism from member states?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    42. Seetaram, Neelu & Song, Haiyan & Ye, Shun & Page, Stephen, 2018. "Estimating willingness to pay air passenger duty," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 85-97.
    43. Koopmans, Carl & Lieshout, Rogier, 2016. "Airline cost changes: To what extent are they passed through to the passenger?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-11.
    44. Eugenio-Martin, Juan L. & Inchausti-Sintes, Federico, 2016. "Low-cost travel and tourism expenditures," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 140-159.
    45. Bernardo, Valeria & Fageda, Xavier & Teixidó, Jordi, 2024. "Flight ticket taxes in Europe: Environmental and economic impact," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    46. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    47. Manfred Lenzen & Ya-Yen Sun & Futu Faturay & Yuan-Peng Ting & Arne Geschke & Arunima Malik, 2018. "Author Correction: The carbon footprint of global tourism," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 544-544, June.
    48. Julius J. Andersson, 2019. "Carbon Taxes and CO2 Emissions: Sweden as a Case Study," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-30, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Xuhui & Xi, Haonan, 2023. "Carbon mitigation policy and international tourism. Does the European Union Emissions Trading System hit international tourism from member states?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Mangiante, Giacomo, 2024. "The geographic effects of carbon pricing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Elias Hasler, 2025. "Assessing the Global Impact of EU Carbon Pricing: Economic and Climate Spillovers," Working Papers 2025-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    4. Diego R. Känzig & Maximilian Konradt, 2024. "Climate Policy and the Economy: Evidence from Europe’s Carbon Pricing Initiatives," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1081-1124, September.
    5. Hensel, Jannik & Mangiante, Giacomo & Moretti, Luca, 2024. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: Evidence from France," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Jannik Hensel & Giacomo Mangiante & Luca Moretti, 2023. "Carbon Pricing and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from France," CESifo Working Paper Series 10552, CESifo.
    7. Morão, Hugo, 2024. "The impact of carbon policy news on the national energy industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Beltrán, Paula & Grinberg, Federico & Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso, 2023. "The macro-financial effects of international bank lending on emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Endong Wang, 2024. "Structural counterfactual analysis in macroeconomics: theory and inference," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org.
    10. Jannik Hensel & Giacomo Mangiante & Luca Moretti, 2023. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: evidence from France," ECON - Working Papers 434, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    11. Matzner, Anna & Steininger, Lea, 2024. "Firms’ heterogeneous (and unintended) investment response to carbon price increases," Working Paper Series 2958, European Central Bank.
    12. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Benatti, Nicola & Groiss, Martin & Kelly, Petra & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024. "Environmental regulation and productivity growth in the euro area: Testing the porter hypothesis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Miguel Cabello, 2022. "Robust Estimation of the non-Gaussian Dimension in Structural Linear Models," Papers 2212.07263, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    16. Bruns, Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2022. "Comparison of local projection estimators for proxy vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Elijah Broadbent & Huberto M. Ennis & Tyler Pike & Horacio Sapriza, 2024. "Bank Lending Standards and the U.S. Economy," Working Paper 24-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    18. Syed M. Hussain & Lin Liu, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects of discretionary tax changes in Canada: Evidence from a new narrative measure of tax shocks," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 78-107, February.
    19. Hernández, Juan R. & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Valencia, J. Eduardo, 2024. "Global supply chain inflationary pressures and monetary policy in Mexico," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    20. Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Inference for Local Projections," Papers 2306.03073, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:108:y:2024:i:c:s0160738324000902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/annals-of-tourism-research/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.