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Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Carbon Taxes

Author

Listed:
  • Gilbert E. Metcalf
  • James H. Stock

Abstract

Policymakers often express concern about the impact of carbon taxes on employment or GDP. Using a new dataset on carbon tax rates, we estimate the macroeconomic impacts of these taxes on GDP and employment growth rates for various specifications and samples. Our point estimates suggest a zero to modest positive impact on GDP and total employment growth rates. More importantly, we find no robust evidence of a negative effect of the tax on employment or GDP growth. For the European experience at least, we find no support for the view that carbon taxes are job or growth killers.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert E. Metcalf & James H. Stock, 2020. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Carbon Taxes," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 101-106, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:101-06
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201081
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew J. Kotchen & James H. Stock & Catherine D. Wolfram, 2019. "Introduction to "Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, volume 1, pages 3-7, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 917-948, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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