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Forecasting tourism demand: Developing a general nesting spatiotemporal model

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  • Jiao, Xiaoying
  • Chen, Jason Li
  • Li, Gang

Abstract

This study proposes a general nesting spatiotemporal (GNST) model in an effort to improve the accuracy of tourism demand forecasts. The proposed GNST model extends the general nesting spatial (GNS) model into a spatiotemporal form to account for the spatial and temporal effects of endogenous and exogenous variables as well as unobserved factors. As a general specification of spatiotemporal models, the proposed model provides high flexibility in modelling tourism demand. Based on a panel dataset containing quarterly inbound visitor arrivals to 26 European destinations, this empirical study demonstrates that the GNST model outperforms both its non-spatial counterparts and spatiotemporal benchmark models. This finding confirms that spatial and temporal exogenous interaction effects contribute to improved forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiao, Xiaoying & Chen, Jason Li & Li, Gang, 2021. "Forecasting tourism demand: Developing a general nesting spatiotemporal model," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:90:y:2021:i:c:s0160738321001559
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103277
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    Cited by:

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    2. Li, Xin & Xu, Yechi & Law, Rob & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "Enhancing Tourism Demand Forecasting with a Transformer-based Framework," SocArXiv 5ezn3_v1, Center for Open Science.
    3. Xu, Shilin & Liu, Yang & Jin, Chun, 2023. "Forecasting daily tourism demand with multiple factors," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
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    6. Yanzhao Li & Ju-e Guo & Wenjun Zhu, 2024. "Digital financial inclusion and domestic tourism demand: Through the lens of spatial spillover," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(7), pages 1680-1703, November.
    7. Li, Cheng & Zheng, Weimin & Ge, Peng, 2022. "Tourism demand forecasting with spatiotemporal features," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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