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Hydrological modeling and climate change impacts in an agricultural semiarid region. Case study: Guadalupe River basin, Mexico

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  • Molina-Navarro, Eugenio
  • Hallack-Alegría, Michelle
  • Martínez-Pérez, Silvia
  • Ramírez-Hernández, Jorge
  • Mungaray-Moctezuma, Alejandro
  • Sastre-Merlín, Antonio

Abstract

In northern Mexico, water resources management has become a challenging task, aggravated by the vulnerability of this region to climate change. The semiarid Guadalupe River Basin is under additional pressure due to wine production and drinking water supply. We have applied the SWAT model to the upper section of this basin to assess the impacts of several climate change scenarios on its water availability. An overall good performance was obtained (daily and monthly NSE values of 0.66 and 0.86 for calibration; 0.52 and 0.76 for validation). Water balance and flow components prediction was satisfactory. However, although peak flows were well represented, the model overestimated discharge during low flow periods. Once evaluated, high and low emissions climate change scenarios were simulated using projections based on CMIP3 for both scenarios and for short (2010–2039) and long term (2070–2099) obtained from the Baja California Climate Change Action Program. Noticeable impacts of climate change on river flow were obtained, with runoff reductions around −45% in the short term, but up to −60% in the long term. Main drives seem to be precipitation reduction, in addition to an increasing water loss- in percentage-via evapotranspiration. Aquifer recharge is expected to decrease up to −74%, with a consequent reduction of groundwater flow. We also quantified the differentiating impacts during dry, normal and wet years. The latter was the most affected (annual streamflow reduction up to −72%), especially during winter and spring. On the contrary, a slight runoff increase is expected during dry years, especially during summer. These runoff reductions were supposed to be a huge problem for a region where pressure on water resources is already very strong. Our model framework may provide water managers with an approximation of how climate change possibly can affect water availability, serving as a tool to test further scenarios.

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  • Molina-Navarro, Eugenio & Hallack-Alegría, Michelle & Martínez-Pérez, Silvia & Ramírez-Hernández, Jorge & Mungaray-Moctezuma, Alejandro & Sastre-Merlín, Antonio, 2016. "Hydrological modeling and climate change impacts in an agricultural semiarid region. Case study: Guadalupe River basin, Mexico," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 29-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:175:y:2016:i:c:p:29-42
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2015.10.029
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    1. Darren Ficklin & Iris Stewart & Edwin Maurer, 2013. "Effects of projected climate change on the hydrology in the Mono Lake Basin, California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(1), pages 111-131, January.
    2. Zhang, Dejian & Chen, Xingwei & Yao, Huaxia & Lin, Bingqing, 2015. "Improved calibration scheme of SWAT by separating wet and dry seasons," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 301(C), pages 54-61.
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    3. Rafiei-Sardooi, Elham & Azareh, Ali & Joorabian Shooshtari, Sharif & Parteli, Eric J.R., 2022. "Long-term assessment of land-use and climate change on water scarcity in an arid basin in Iran," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 467(C).
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    5. Brian Omondi Oduor & Miguel Ángel Campo-Bescós & Noemí Lana-Renault & Alberto Alfaro Echarri & Javier Casalí, 2022. "Evaluation of the Impact of Changing from Rainfed to Irrigated Agriculture in a Mediterranean Watershed in Spain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, December.

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