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Global Oil Production: Forecasts and Methodologies

Author

Listed:
  • Roger Bentley

    (Department of Cybernetics, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AY, England)

  • Godfrey Boyle

    (Energy and Environment Research Unit, The Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, England)

Abstract

A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast: group 1—quantitative analyses which predict that global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020; group 2—forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecast's time horizon (typically 2020 or 2030); group 3—nonquantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future. The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that group 1 forecasts are the most realistic.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Bentley & Godfrey Boyle, 2008. "Global Oil Production: Forecasts and Methodologies," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 35(4), pages 609-626, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:35:y:2008:i:4:p:609-626
    DOI: 10.1068/b33063t
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    Cited by:

    1. Steward, David R. & Allen, Andrew J., 2016. "Peak groundwater depletion in the High Plains Aquifer, projections from 1930 to 2110," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 36-48.
    2. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Bentley, Roger & Söderbergh, Bengt & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 860-870.
    3. Tunstall, Thomas, 2015. "Iterative Bass Model forecasts for unconventional oil production in the Eagle Ford Shale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 580-588.

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