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Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

Author

Listed:
  • S. Asseng

    (University of Florida)

  • F. Ewert

    (Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn)

  • P. Martre

    (INRA, UMR 1095 Génétique, Diversité and Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC)
    Blaise Pascal University, UMR1095 GDEC)

  • R. P. Rötter

    (Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland)

  • D. B. Lobell

    (Stanford University
    Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University)

  • D. Cammarano

    (University of Florida
    Present addresses: James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee, DD2 5DA, Scotland, UK. (D.C.); Department of Plant Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90112, Thailand. (J.A.); European Commission Joint Research Center, via Enrico Fermi, 2749 Ispra, 21027, Italy. (G.D.S.))

  • B. A. Kimball

    (USDA, Agricultural Research Service, US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center)

  • M. J. Ottman

    (The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona)

  • G. W. Wall

    (USDA, Agricultural Research Service, US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center)

  • J. W. White

    (USDA, Agricultural Research Service, US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center)

  • M. P. Reynolds

    (CIMMYT Int. Adpo)

  • P. D. Alderman

    (CIMMYT Int. Adpo)

  • P. V. V. Prasad

    (Kansas State University)

  • P. K. Aggarwal

    (CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Water Management Institute)

  • J. Anothai

    (Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University
    Present addresses: James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee, DD2 5DA, Scotland, UK. (D.C.); Department of Plant Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90112, Thailand. (J.A.); European Commission Joint Research Center, via Enrico Fermi, 2749 Ispra, 21027, Italy. (G.D.S.))

  • B. Basso

    (Michigan State University East Lansing
    W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University East Lansing)

  • C. Biernath

    (Institute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health)

  • A. J. Challinor

    (Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
    CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT))

  • G. De Sanctis

    (INRA, US1116 AgroClim
    Present addresses: James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee, DD2 5DA, Scotland, UK. (D.C.); Department of Plant Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90112, Thailand. (J.A.); European Commission Joint Research Center, via Enrico Fermi, 2749 Ispra, 21027, Italy. (G.D.S.))

  • J. Doltra

    (Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre (CIFA))

  • E. Fereres

    (IAS-CSIC and University of Cordoba)

  • M. Garcia-Vila

    (IAS-CSIC and University of Cordoba)

  • S. Gayler

    (WESS-Water & Earth System Science Competence Cluster, c/o University of Tübingen)

  • G. Hoogenboom

    (Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University)

  • L. A. Hunt

    (University of Guelph)

  • R. C. Izaurralde

    (University of Maryland, College Park Maryland 20742, USA
    Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University)

  • M. Jabloun

    (Aarhus University)

  • C. D. Jones

    (University of Maryland, College Park Maryland 20742, USA)

  • K. C. Kersebaum

    (Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research)

  • A-K. Koehler

    (Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds)

  • C. Müller

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • S. Naresh Kumar

    (Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA)

  • C. Nendel

    (Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research)

  • G. O’Leary

    (Landscape & Water Sciences)

  • J. E. Olesen

    (Aarhus University)

  • T. Palosuo

    (Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland)

  • E. Priesack

    (Institute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health)

  • E. Eyshi Rezaei

    (Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn)

  • A. C. Ruane

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • M. A. Semenov

    (Rothamsted Research)

  • I. Shcherbak

    (Michigan State University East Lansing
    W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University East Lansing)

  • C. Stöckle

    (Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University)

  • P. Stratonovitch

    (Rothamsted Research)

  • T. Streck

    (Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim)

  • I. Supit

    (Plant Production Systems & Earth System Science, Wageningen University)

  • F. Tao

    (Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland
    Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science)

  • P. J. Thorburn

    (CSIRO Agriculture Flagship)

  • K. Waha

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • E. Wang

    (CSIRO Agriculture Flagship)

  • D. Wallach

    (INRA, UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et développement territorial (AGIR))

  • J. Wolf

    (Plant Production Systems & Earth System Science, Wageningen University)

  • Z. Zhao

    (CSIRO Agriculture Flagship
    China Agricultural University, Yuanmingyuan West Road 2 Beijing 100193, China)

  • Y. Zhu

    (College of Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University)

Abstract

This study—based on systematic testing of 30 different wheat crop models against field experiments—shows that many wheat models simulate yields well, but with reduced accuracy at higher temperatures. Extrapolation of the model ensemble response indicates that global wheat production will fall by 6% for each 1 °C increase in temperature.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Asseng & F. Ewert & P. Martre & R. P. Rötter & D. B. Lobell & D. Cammarano & B. A. Kimball & M. J. Ottman & G. W. Wall & J. W. White & M. P. Reynolds & P. D. Alderman & P. V. V. Prasad & P. K. Agga, 2015. "Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 143-147, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:2:d:10.1038_nclimate2470
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2470
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