Multi-level impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown on agricultural systems in India: The case of Uttar Pradesh

When on March 24, 2020 the Government of India ordered a complete lockdown of the country as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, it had serious unwanted implications for farmers and the supply chains for agricultural produce. This was magnified by the fact that, as typically in developing countries, India's economy is strongly based on farming, industrialization of its agricultural systems being only modest. This paper reports on the various consequences of the COVID-19 lockdown for farming systems in India, including the economy, taking into account the associated emergency responses of state and national governments. Combining quantitative and qualitative sources of information with a focus on the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, including expert elicitation and a survey of farmers, the paper identifies and analyzes the different factors that contributed to the severe disruption of farming systems and the agricultural sector as a whole following the lockdown. Among other issues, our study finds that the lack of migrant labor in some regions and a surplus of workers in others greatly affected the April harvest, leading to a decline in agricultural wages in some communities and an increase in others, as well as to critical losses of produce. Moreover, the partial closure of rural markets and procurement options, combined with the insufficient supply of products, led to shortages of food supplies and dramatically increased prices, which particularly affected urban dwellers and the poor. We argue that the lessons learned from the COVID-19 crisis could fuel the development of new sustainable agro-policies and decision-making in response not only to future pandemics but also to the sustainable development of agricultural systems in India and in developing countries in general.