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Agricultural labor, COVID-19, and potential implications for food security and air quality in the breadbasket of India

Author

Listed:
  • Balwinder-Singh,
  • Shirsath, Paresh B.
  • Jat, M.L.
  • McDonald, A.J.
  • Srivastava, Amit K.
  • Craufurd, Peter
  • Rana, D.S.
  • Singh, A.K.
  • Chaudhari, S.K.
  • Sharma, P.C.
  • Singh, Rajbir
  • Jat, H.S.
  • Sidhu, H.S.
  • Gerard, B.
  • Braun, Hans

Abstract

To contain the COVID-19 pandemic, India imposed a national lockdown at the end of March 2020, a decision that resulted in a massive reverse migration as many workers across economic sectors returned to their home regions. Migrants provide the foundations of the agricultural workforce in the ‘breadbasket’ states of Punjab and Haryana in Northwest India.There are mounting concerns that near and potentially longer-term reductions in labor availability may jeopardize agricultural production and consequently national food security. The timing of rice transplanting at the beginning of the summer monsoon season has a cascading influence on productivity of the entire rice-wheat cropping system. To assess the potential for COVID-related reductions in the agriculture workforce to disrupt production of the dominant rice-wheat cropping pattern in these states, we use a spatial ex ante modelling framework to evaluate four scenarios representing a range of plausible labor constraints on the timing of rice transplanting. Averaged over both states, results suggest that rice productivity losses under all delay scenarios would be low as compare to those for wheat, with total system productivity loss estimates ranging from 9%, to 21%, equivalent to economic losses of USD $674 m to $1.48 billion. Late rice transplanting and harvesting can also aggravate winter air pollution with concomitant health risks. Technological options such as direct seeded rice, staggered nursery transplanting, and crop diversification away from rice can help address these challenges but require new approaches to policy and incentives for change.

Suggested Citation

  • Balwinder-Singh, & Shirsath, Paresh B. & Jat, M.L. & McDonald, A.J. & Srivastava, Amit K. & Craufurd, Peter & Rana, D.S. & Singh, A.K. & Chaudhari, S.K. & Sharma, P.C. & Singh, Rajbir & Jat, H.S. & Si, 2020. "Agricultural labor, COVID-19, and potential implications for food security and air quality in the breadbasket of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:185:y:2020:i:c:s0308521x20308155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102954
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaur, Baljinder & Singh, J.M. & Garg, B.R. & Singh, Jasdev & Singh, Satwinder, 2011. "Causes and Impact of Labour Migration: A Case Study of Punjab Agriculture," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 24(Conferenc), November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kumar, Pavan & Singh, S.S. & Pandey, A.K. & Singh, Ram Kumar & Srivastava, Prashant Kumar & Kumar, Manoj & Dubey, Shantanu Kumar & Sah, Uma & Nandan, Rajiv & Singh, Susheel Kumar & Agrawal, Priyanshi , 2021. "Multi-level impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown on agricultural systems in India: The case of Uttar Pradesh," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    2. Tomas Baležentis & Mangirdas Morkūnas & Agnė Žičkienė & Artiom Volkov & Erika Ribašauskienė & Dalia Štreimikienė, 2021. "Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-31, October.
    3. Yuee Li & Jingdong Li, 2021. "How Does China’s Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect the Sustainability of Its Net Grain Imports?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, June.
    4. Tong Li & Yanfen Wang & Lizhen Cui & Ranjay K. Singh & Hongdou Liu & Xiufang Song & Zhihong Xu & Xiaoyong Cui, 2023. "Exploring the evolving landscape of COVID-19 interfaced with livelihoods," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Yanqi Xie & Apurbo Sarkar & Md. Shakhawat Hossain & Ahmed Khairul Hasan & Xianli Xia, 2021. "Determinants of Farmers’ Confidence in Agricultural Production Recovery during the Early Phases of the COVID-19 Pandemic in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, October.
    6. Snow, Val & Rodriguez, Daniel & Dynes, Robyn & Kaye-Blake, William & Mallawaarachchi, Thilak & Zydenbos, Sue & Cong, Lei & Obadovic, Irena & Agnew, Rob & Amery, Nicole & Bell, Lindsay & Benson, Cristy, 2021. "Resilience achieved via multiple compensating subsystems: The immediate impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the agri-food systems of Australia and New Zealand," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    7. Stephens, Emma & Timsina, Jagadish & Martin, Guillaume & van Wijk, Mark & Klerkx, Laurens & Reidsma, Pytrik & Snow, Val, 2022. "The immediate impact of the first waves of the global COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural systems worldwide: Reflections on the COVID-19 special issue for agricultural systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    8. Abhilash Singh Chauhan & Surender Singh & Rajesh Kumar Singh Maurya & Ozgur Kisi & Alka Rani & Abhishek Danodia, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Rainfall Dynamics of 120 Years (1901–2020) Using Innovative Trend Methodology: A Case Study of Haryana, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-32, April.
    9. Saripalle, Madhuri & Subramanian, Vijaya C., 2022. "Production, Prices and Supply Chain disruption among farmers during Covid-19: Empirical Evidence from India," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322395, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Dixon, John M. & Weerahewa, Jeevika & Hellin, Jon & Rola-Rubzen, Maria Fay & Huang, Jikun & Kumar, Shalander & Das, Anup & Qureshi, Muhammad Ejaz & Krupnik, Timothy J. & Shideed, Kamil & Jat, Mangi L., 2021. "Response and resilience of Asian agrifood systems to COVID-19: An assessment across twenty-five countries and four regional farming and food systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    11. Xuehao Bi & Bo Wen & Wei Zou, 2022. "The Role of Internet Development in China’s Grain Production: Specific Path and Dialectical Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-14, March.
    12. Ribašauskienė, Erika & Volkov, Artiom & Morkūnas, Mangirdas & Žičkienė, Agnė & Dabkiene, Vida & Štreimikienė, Dalia & Baležentis, Tomas, 2024. "Strategies for increasing agricultural viability, resilience and sustainability amid disruptive events: An expert-based analysis of relevance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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