IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v178y2020ics0308521x19306729.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cost and effectiveness of in-season strategies for coping with weather variability in Pakistan's agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Shah, Hassnain
  • Siderius, Christian
  • Hellegers, Petra

Abstract

Crops are vulnerable to weather hazards throughout the growth season, with periods of heightened risk described as critical moments. Farmers have a number of ex-ante and in-season options for coping with these events, and ex-post adjustments to farm-household portfolios to further limit the impact on livelihoods if these options fail. Adaptation-related research has focussed mainly on ex-ante or ex-post coping strategies, because in-season approaches tend to be seen as a given, meaning their cost effectiveness is ignored. Based on detailed survey data collected from 287 households in four of the main cropping systems in Pakistan, this study evaluates the impact pathways of hazards and the cost effectiveness of in-season coping strategies. Yield losses varied by 10–30% for 43% of the cases and by 31–50% for another 39%, with the most severe losses caused by the compounding effect of two hazards in one crop season or if both crops in a multi-crop rotation were affected simultaneously. In-season coping options were mostly restricted to the early crop stages and constrained by a short window of time for the response. The application of in-season coping strategies resulted in a yield recovery of 40–95%, with an additional cost of 4–34% of the value of recovered yield. The major critical moments identified were the harvest season, with farming often affected by un-seasonal precipitation, and the germination stage, with an additional high risk for low temperatures at high altitude. A better understanding of the differentiated risks and effectiveness of in-season coping strategies could support the promotion of sustainable crop production in similar agro-ecologies. Moreover, the effectiveness of present-day coping strategies, rather than the use of coping approaches itself, could signal a potential ability to adjust to future climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Shah, Hassnain & Siderius, Christian & Hellegers, Petra, 2020. "Cost and effectiveness of in-season strategies for coping with weather variability in Pakistan's agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:178:y:2020:i:c:s0308521x19306729
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102746
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X19306729
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102746?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilley, Maxx & Boudreau, Tanya E., 2001. "Coming to terms with vulnerability: a critique of the food security definition," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 229-247, June.
    2. Frances C. Moore & David B. Lobell, 2014. "Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 610-614, July.
    3. Daniel J. Clarke, 2016. "A Theory of Rational Demand for Index Insurance," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 283-306, February.
    4. Landicho, Leila D. & Visco, Roberto G. & Paelmo, Roselyn F. & Cabahug, Rowena D. & Baliton, Romnick S. & Espaldon, Marya Laya O. & Lasco, Rodel D., 2015. "Field-Level Evidences of Climate Change and Coping Strategies of Smallholder Farmers in Molawin-Dampalit Sub-Watershed, Makiling Forest Reserve, Philippines," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, June.
    5. Leila D Landicho & Roberto G Visco & Roselyn F Paelmo & Rowena D Cabahug & Romnick S Baliton & Marya Laya O Espaldon & Rodel D. Lasco, 2015. "Field-Level Evidences of Climate Change and Coping Strategies of Smallholder Farmers in Molawin-Dampalit Sub-Watershed, Makiling Forest Reserve, Philippines," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 12(1), pages 81-94, June.
    6. Hussain, Syed Sajidin & Mudasser, Muhammad, 2007. "Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan - An econometric analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 494-501, May.
    7. Jörn Birkmann, 2011. "First- and second-order adaptation to natural hazards and extreme events in the context of climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(2), pages 811-840, August.
    8. J. L. Hatfield & Lois Wright-Morton & Beth Hall, 2018. "Vulnerability of grain crops and croplands in the Midwest to climatic variability and adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 263-275, January.
    9. World Bank, 2015. "Agricultural Risk Management in the Face of Climate Change," World Bank Publications - Reports 22897, The World Bank Group.
    10. Mishra, Ashok & Siderius, Christian & Aberson, Kenny & van der Ploeg, Martine & Froebrich, Jochen, 2013. "Short-term rainfall forecasts as a soft adaptation to climate change in irrigation management in North-East India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 97-106.
    11. Thamo, Tas & Addai, Donkor & Pannell, David J. & Robertson, Michael J. & Thomas, Dean T. & Young, John M., 2017. "Climate change impacts and farm-level adaptation: Economic analysis of a mixed cropping–livestock system," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 99-108.
    12. Gianluca Pescaroli & David Alexander, 2016. "Critical infrastructure, panarchies and the vulnerability paths of cascading disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 175-192, May.
    13. Hansen, James W., 2002. "Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 309-330, December.
    14. Ramírez-Rodrigues, Melissa A. & Alderman, Phillip D. & Stefanova, Lydia & Cossani, C. Mariano & Flores, Dagoberto & Asseng, Senthold, 2016. "The value of seasonal forecasts for irrigated, supplementary irrigated, and rainfed wheat cropping systems in northwest Mexico," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 76-86.
    15. H. Biemans & C. Siderius & A. F. Lutz & S. Nepal & B. Ahmad & T. Hassan & W. Bloh & R. R. Wijngaard & P. Wester & A. B. Shrestha & W. W. Immerzeel, 2019. "Importance of snow and glacier meltwater for agriculture on the Indo-Gangetic Plain," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 594-601, July.
    16. Sohail Jehangir Malik & Asjad Tariq Sheikh & Amir Hamza Jilani, 2016. "Inclusive Agricultural Growth in Pakistan—Understanding Some Basic Constraints," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 889-903.
    17. Ashok, K.R. & Sasikala, C., 2012. "Farmers’ Vulnerability to Rainfall Variability and Technology Adoption in Rain-fed Tank Irrigated Agriculture," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 25(2).
    18. Jürg Kuster & Eugen Huber & Robert Lippmann & Alphons Schmid & Emil Schneider & Urs Witschi & Roger Wüst, 2015. "Project Management Handbook," Management for Professionals, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-662-45373-5, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mathithibane, Mpho Steve, 2021. "Climate risk coping strategies of maize low-income farmers: A South African Perspective," MPRA Paper 107677, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mingze Wu & Yueji Zhu, 2023. "Does Farmers’ Lottery Participation Affect Technical Efficiency of Banana Production in Rural China?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Shah, Hassnain & Siderius, Christian & Hellegers, Petra, 2021. "Limitations to adjusting growing periods in different agroecological zones of Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tuong The Tran & Aslihan Arslan & Giacomo Branca & Trinh Van Mai, 2018. "Bio-Economic Assessment of Climate-Smart Tea Production in The Northern Mountainous Region of Vietnam," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Enrico Biffis & Erik Chavez & Alexis Louaas & Pierre Picard, 2022. "Parametric insurance and technology adoption in developing countries," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 47(1), pages 7-44, March.
    3. Shah, Hassnain & Siderius, Christian & Hellegers, Petra, 2021. "Limitations to adjusting growing periods in different agroecological zones of Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    4. Wreford, Anita & Topp, Cairistiona F.E., 2020. "Impacts of climate change on livestock and possible adaptations: A case study of the United Kingdom," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    5. Nicoleta Radu & Felicia Alexandru, 2022. "Parametric Insurance—A Possible and Necessary Solution to Insure the Earthquake Risk of Romania," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Danielsson, Erna & Nyhlén, Jon & Olausson, Pär M., 2020. "Strategic planning for power shortages," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Leigh Johnson, 2013. "Index Insurance and the Articulation of Risk-Bearing Subjects," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(11), pages 2663-2681, November.
    8. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    9. Sem J. Duijndam & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Liselotte C. Hagedoorn & Philip Bubeck & Toon Haer & My Pham & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2023. "Drivers of migration intentions in coastal Vietnam under increased flood risk from sea level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-22, February.
    10. Yu, Jisang & Hendricks, Nathan P., 2017. "Crop Insurance Moral Hazard from Price and Weather Forecasts," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258336, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Hongbo Duan & Gupeng Zhang & Shouyang Wang & Ying Fan, 2018. "Balancing China’s climate damage risk against emission control costs," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 387-403, March.
    12. Ji, Xinde & Cobourn, Kelly M. & Weng, Weizhe, 2018. "The Effect of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture: Water-Temperature Interactions and Adaptation in the Western U.S," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274306, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Jesse B. Tack & David Ubilava, 2015. "Climate and agricultural risk: measuring the effect of ENSO on U.S. crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 245-257, March.
    14. Rahimi-Golkhandan, Armin & Garvin, Michael J. & Brown, Bryan L., 2019. "Characterizing and measuring transportation infrastructure diversity through linkages with ecological stability theory," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 114-130.
    15. Thamo, Tas & Addai, Donkor & Kragt, Marit E. & Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robertson, Michael J., 2019. "Climate change reduces the mitigation obtainable from sequestration in an Australian farming system," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(4), October.
    16. Nikolaos Gourgouletis & Marianna Gkavrou & Evangelos Baltas, 2023. "Comparison of Empirical ETo Relationships with ERA5-Land and In Situ Data in Greece," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-23, August.
    17. Dalei Hao & Gautam Bisht & Hailong Wang & Donghui Xu & Huilin Huang & Yun Qian & L. Ruby Leung, 2023. "A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Quentin Stoeffler & Michael Carter & Catherine Guirkinger & Wouter Gelade, 2022. "The Spillover Impact of Index Insurance on Agricultural Investment by Cotton Farmers in Burkina Faso," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 114-140.
    19. Shawn Cole & Xavier Gine & Jeremy Tobacman & Petia Topalova & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2013. "Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 104-135, January.
    20. Johansson, Jonas & Hassel, Henrik, 2010. "An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(12), pages 1335-1344.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:178:y:2020:i:c:s0308521x19306729. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.