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Cost and effectiveness of in-season strategies for coping with weather variability in Pakistan's agriculture

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  • Shah, Hassnain
  • Siderius, Christian
  • Hellegers, Petra

Abstract

Crops are vulnerable to weather hazards throughout the growth season, with periods of heightened risk described as critical moments. Farmers have a number of ex-ante and in-season options for coping with these events, and ex-post adjustments to farm-household portfolios to further limit the impact on livelihoods if these options fail. Adaptation-related research has focussed mainly on ex-ante or ex-post coping strategies, because in-season approaches tend to be seen as a given, meaning their cost effectiveness is ignored. Based on detailed survey data collected from 287 households in four of the main cropping systems in Pakistan, this study evaluates the impact pathways of hazards and the cost effectiveness of in-season coping strategies. Yield losses varied by 10–30% for 43% of the cases and by 31–50% for another 39%, with the most severe losses caused by the compounding effect of two hazards in one crop season or if both crops in a multi-crop rotation were affected simultaneously. In-season coping options were mostly restricted to the early crop stages and constrained by a short window of time for the response. The application of in-season coping strategies resulted in a yield recovery of 40–95%, with an additional cost of 4–34% of the value of recovered yield. The major critical moments identified were the harvest season, with farming often affected by un-seasonal precipitation, and the germination stage, with an additional high risk for low temperatures at high altitude. A better understanding of the differentiated risks and effectiveness of in-season coping strategies could support the promotion of sustainable crop production in similar agro-ecologies. Moreover, the effectiveness of present-day coping strategies, rather than the use of coping approaches itself, could signal a potential ability to adjust to future climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Shah, Hassnain & Siderius, Christian & Hellegers, Petra, 2020. "Cost and effectiveness of in-season strategies for coping with weather variability in Pakistan's agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:178:y:2020:i:c:s0308521x19306729
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102746
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    1. Mathithibane, Mpho Steve, 2021. "Climate risk coping strategies of maize low-income farmers: A South African Perspective," MPRA Paper 107677, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cécile Aubert & Yann Raineau & Marc Raynal & Nicolas Pasquier, 2024. "Multiple agricultural risks and insurance—issues, perspectives, and illustration for wine-growing," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 105(4), pages 371-391, December.
    3. Mingze Wu & Yueji Zhu, 2023. "Does Farmers’ Lottery Participation Affect Technical Efficiency of Banana Production in Rural China?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, March.
    4. Shah, Hassnain & Siderius, Christian & Hellegers, Petra, 2021. "Limitations to adjusting growing periods in different agroecological zones of Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).

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