IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/72859.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Productivity in Pakistan: A District Level Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmad, Munir
  • Siftain, Hassan
  • Iqbal, Muhammad

Abstract

This study analyses the impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Pakistan by employing production function approach using districts level data for the period of 1981-2010.The Fixed Effect (FE) estimations support the evidence that an increase of 10C in the mean temperature during sowing time would reduce crop yield by 7.4 percent. The same rise in mean temperature in January and February enhances wheat productivity to the tune of 6.2 percent. However, no significant impact of rise in temperature normals during the maturity stage (March-April) was observed on wheat productivity. The deviations of mean temperature from historic (long run) mean—weather shocks are found posing no threat to wheat productivity during the period under study. Precipitation normals—during vegetative and maturity stages and their deviations from historic mean (positive) exert a positive impact on the wheat yield but the magnitude of the impact of incremental rains came out to be very low.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad, Munir & Siftain, Hassan & Iqbal, Muhammad, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Productivity in Pakistan: A District Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 72859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72859
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72859/1/MPRA_paper_72859.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendelsohn,Robert & Neumann,James E. (ed.), 2004. "The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521607698, January.
    2. John K. Horowitz & John Quiggin, 1999. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1044-1045, September.
    3. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    4. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    5. Fulco Ludwig & Stephen Milroy & Senthold Asseng, 2009. "Impacts of recent climate change on wheat production systems in Western Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 495-517, February.
    6. Uzma Hanif & Shabib Haider Syed & Rafique Ahmad & Kauser Abdullah Malik, 2010. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector of Punjab," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 771-798.
    7. Lee, Jaehyuk & Nadolnyak, Denis A. & Hartarska, Valentina M., 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Asian Countries: Evidence from Panel Study," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119808, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Adams, Richard M. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Dudek, Daniel J. & Glyer, J. David, 1988. "Implications Of Global Climate Change For Western Agriculture," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-9, December.
    9. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. Rehana Siddiqui & Ghulam Samad & Muhammad Nasir & Hafiz Hanzla Jalil, 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on Major Agricultural Crops: Evidence from Punjab, Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 261-276.
    11. Luo, Qunying & Williams, Martin A. J. & Bellotti, William & Bryan, Brett, 2003. "Quantitative and visual assessments of climate change impacts on South Australian wheat production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 173-186, September.
    12. Chang, Ching-Cheng, 2002. "The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 51-64, May.
    13. Tubiello, Francesco N. & Rosenzweig, Cynthia & Volk, Tyler, 1995. "Interactions of CO2, temperature and management practices: Simulations with a modified version of CERES-Wheat," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 135-152.
    14. Cline, William R, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1309-1311, December.
    15. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel, 1999. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Developing Countries: Does Adaptation Matter?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 277-293, August.
    16. Ludwig, Fulco & Asseng, Senthold, 2006. "Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 159-179, October.
    17. Roy Darwin, 1999. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1049-1052, September.
    18. Temesgen Tadesse Deressa & Rashid M. Hassan, 2009. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(4), pages 529-554, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    2. Munir Ahmed & Ghulam Mustafa & Muhammad Iqbal, 2016. "Impact of Farm Households’ Adaptations to Climate Change on Food Security: Evidence from Different Agro-ecologies of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 561-588.
    3. Raza, Amar & Ahmad, Munir, 2015. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Productivity in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Meraj Sarwary & Senthilnathan Samiappan & Ghulam Dastgir Khan & Masaood Moahid, 2023. "Climate Change and Cereal Crops Productivity in Afghanistan: Evidence Based on Panel Regression Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-13, July.
    5. Muhammad Ijaz & Qudsia Zafar & Aftab Ahmad Khan & Sher Shah Hassan, 2023. "Assessing drought and its impacts on wheat yield using remotely sensed observations in rainfed Potohar region of Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 3699-3721, April.
    6. Ahmad, Munir & Iqbal, Muhammad & Farooq, Umar, 2015. "Food Security and its Constraining Factors in South Asia: Challenges and Opportunities," MPRA Paper 72868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Iqbal, Muhammad & Ahmad, Munir & Mustafa, Ghulam, 2015. "Impact of Farm Households’ Adaptation on Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Different Agro-ecologies of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Paul Watkiss & Federica Cimato, 2016. "The economics of adaptation and climate-resilient development: lessons from projects for key adaptation challenges," GRI Working Papers 235, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    9. Muhammad Aamir Khan & Alishba Tahir & Nabila Khurshid & Muhammad Iftikhar ul Husnain & Mukhtar Ahmed & Houcine Boughanmi, 2020. "Economic Effects of Climate Change-Induced Loss of Agricultural Production by 2050: A Case Study of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-17, February.
    10. Iqbal, Muhammad & Ahmad, Munir & Mustafa, Ghulam, 2015. "Climate Change, Vulnerability, Food Security and Human Health in Rural Pakistan: A Gender Perspective," MPRA Paper 72866, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmad, Munir & Nawaz, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad & Javed, Sajid, 2014. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Productivity in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Shahbaz Bhatti & Sarfraz Hassan & Khalid Mushtaq & Kamran Javed, 2020. "Investigation The Impact Of Climate Change On Productivity Of Cotton: Empirical Evidence From Cotton Zone," Big Data In Agriculture (BDA), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 1-4, February.
    3. Byela Tibesigwa & Martine Visser & Jane Turpie, 2017. "Climate change and South Africa’s commercial farms: an assessment of impacts on specialised horticulture, crop, livestock and mixed farming systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 607-636, April.
    4. Eric Njuki & Boris E Bravo-Ureta & Christopher J O’Donnell, 2018. "A new look at the decomposition of agricultural productivity growth incorporating weather effects," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    5. BEN ZAIED, YOUNES & Zouabi, Oussama, 2015. "Climate change impacts on agriculture: A panel cointegration approach and application to Tunisia," MPRA Paper 64711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Chonabayashi, Shun, 2014. "Accounting for Land Use Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170710, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Garcia, Maria & Viladrich-Grau, Montserrat, 2009. "The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: The case of Spain," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 9(02), pages 1-32.
    8. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank.
    9. Birthal, P.S. & Negi, Digvijay S. & Kumar, Shiv & Aggarwal, Shaily & Suresh, A. & Khan, Md. Tajuddin, 2014. "How Sensitive is Indian Agriculture to Climate Change?," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 69(4), pages 1-14.
    10. Michelle J. Reinsborough, 2003. "A Ricardian model of climate change in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 21-40, March.
    11. Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea, 2020. "The Role of Nonfarm Influences in Ricardian Estimates of Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 934-959, May.
    12. repec:aer:wpaper:342 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
    14. Quiggin, John C. & Horowitz, John K., 2003. "Costs of adjustment to climate change," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(4), pages 1-18.
    15. Schlenker, Wolfram & Hanemann, W. Michael & Fisher, Anthony C., 2004. "Determinants of Agricultural Output: Degree Days, Yields and Implications for Climate Change," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19222, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Afzal, Muhammad & Ahmed, Tanvir & Ahmed, Gulzar, 2016. "Empirical Assessment of Climate Change on Major Agricultural Crops of Punjab, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 70958, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2016.
    17. Thapa, Sridhar & Joshi, Ganesh Raj, 2010. "A Ricardian analysis of the climate change impact on Nepalese agriculture," MPRA Paper 29785, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2011.
    18. Raju Mandal & Hiranya Nath, 2017. "Climate Change and indian Agriculture: Impacts on Crop Yield," Working Papers 1705, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    19. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, 2021. "Climate, Agriculture and Food," Papers 2105.12044, arXiv.org.
    20. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Jamaica," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38585, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    21. Zhou, Li & Turvey, Calum G., 2014. "Climate change, adaptation and China's grain production," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 72-89.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture; Wheat Yield; Climate Change; Growth Stages; and District Level Panel Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72859. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.