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Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Productivity in Pakistan: A District Level Analysis

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  • Ahmad, Munir
  • Siftain, Hassan
  • Iqbal, Muhammad

Abstract

This study analyses the impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Pakistan by employing production function approach using districts level data for the period of 1981-2010.The Fixed Effect (FE) estimations support the evidence that an increase of 10C in the mean temperature during sowing time would reduce crop yield by 7.4 percent. The same rise in mean temperature in January and February enhances wheat productivity to the tune of 6.2 percent. However, no significant impact of rise in temperature normals during the maturity stage (March-April) was observed on wheat productivity. The deviations of mean temperature from historic (long run) mean—weather shocks are found posing no threat to wheat productivity during the period under study. Precipitation normals—during vegetative and maturity stages and their deviations from historic mean (positive) exert a positive impact on the wheat yield but the magnitude of the impact of incremental rains came out to be very low.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad, Munir & Siftain, Hassan & Iqbal, Muhammad, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Productivity in Pakistan: A District Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 72859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72859
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    2. Munir Ahmed & Ghulam Mustafa & Muhammad Iqbal, 2016. "Impact of Farm Households’ Adaptations to Climate Change on Food Security: Evidence from Different Agro-ecologies of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 561-588.
    3. Raza, Amar & Ahmad, Munir, 2015. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Productivity in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Meraj Sarwary & Senthilnathan Samiappan & Ghulam Dastgir Khan & Masaood Moahid, 2023. "Climate Change and Cereal Crops Productivity in Afghanistan: Evidence Based on Panel Regression Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-13, July.
    5. Muhammad Ijaz & Qudsia Zafar & Aftab Ahmad Khan & Sher Shah Hassan, 2023. "Assessing drought and its impacts on wheat yield using remotely sensed observations in rainfed Potohar region of Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 3699-3721, April.
    6. Ahmad, Munir & Iqbal, Muhammad & Farooq, Umar, 2015. "Food Security and its Constraining Factors in South Asia: Challenges and Opportunities," MPRA Paper 72868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Iqbal, Muhammad & Ahmad, Munir & Mustafa, Ghulam, 2015. "Impact of Farm Households’ Adaptation on Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Different Agro-ecologies of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Paul Watkiss & Federica Cimato, 2016. "The economics of adaptation and climate-resilient development: lessons from projects for key adaptation challenges," GRI Working Papers 235, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    9. Muhammad Aamir Khan & Alishba Tahir & Nabila Khurshid & Muhammad Iftikhar ul Husnain & Mukhtar Ahmed & Houcine Boughanmi, 2020. "Economic Effects of Climate Change-Induced Loss of Agricultural Production by 2050: A Case Study of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-17, February.
    10. Iqbal, Muhammad & Ahmad, Munir & Mustafa, Ghulam, 2015. "Climate Change, Vulnerability, Food Security and Human Health in Rural Pakistan: A Gender Perspective," MPRA Paper 72866, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture; Wheat Yield; Climate Change; Growth Stages; and District Level Panel Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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