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The Effects of Oil Prices on Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Azerbaijan

Author

Listed:
  • Shahriyar Mukhtarov

    (Department of World Economy, Baku Engineering University, Baku AZ0101, Azerbaijan)

  • Sannur Aliyev

    (Department of International Economics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Istiqlaliyyat Str. 6, Baku AZ1141, Azerbaijan,)

  • Javid Zeynalov

    (Department of Finance, Baku Engineering University, Baku AZ0101, Azerbaijan.)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of oil prices on economic growth, export, inflation and exchange rate in Azerbaijan, employing Johansen cointegration and VECM methods to the data spanning from January, 2005 to January, 2019. The results from the Johansen cointegration method confirm the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Estimation results impulse-response and variance decomposition tests reveal that there is a positive and statistically significant impact of oil prices on economic growth, export and inflation for the Azerbaijani case. On the other hand, we find that oil prices have a negative impact on exchange rate. The results of this article will suggest to researchers and policy makers to comprehend the role of oil price shocks on economy in the case of Azerbaijan and other developing oil-rich countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Sannur Aliyev & Javid Zeynalov, 2020. "The Effects of Oil Prices on Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 72-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-01-11
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    9. Jassim Aladwani, 2023. "Wavelet Coherence and Continuous Wavelet Transform - Implementation and Application to the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Oil Price for Importing and Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 531-541, July.
    10. Preeti Sharma & Avinash K. Shrivastava, 2024. "Economic Activities and Oil Price Shocks in Indian Outlook: Direction of Causality and Testing Cointegration," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 25(3), pages 771-790, June.
    11. Hlongwane, Nyiko Worship, 2022. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates in South Africa," MPRA Paper 113209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Arodh Lal Karn & Bhavana Raj Kondamudi & Ravi Kumar Gupta & Denis A. Pustokhin & Irina V. Pustokhina & Meshal Alharbi & Subramaniyaswamy Vairavasundaram & Vijayakumar Varadarajan & Sudhakar Sengan, 2022. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Energy Price Shocks for Sustainable Energy on the Macro-Economy of South Asian Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, December.
    13. Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2020. "Dynamic Relationship between Oil Price and Inflation in Oil Exporting Economy: Empirical Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Technique," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 12-22, June.
    14. Zhou, Qiyun & Wu, Jianpeng & Zuo, Xiaoming, 2024. "Influence of oil prices and precious metals on green growth: Role of digitization in BRICS region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    15. Shangle, Ai & Solaymani, Saeed, 2020. "Responses of monetary policies to oil price changes in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    16. Clovis Wendji Miamo & Elvis Dze Achuo, 2022. "Can the resource curse be avoided? An empirical examination of the nexus between crude oil price and economic growth," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, January.
    17. Sun, Li & Wang, Yang, 2021. "Global economic performance and natural resources commodity prices volatility: Evidence from pre and post COVID-19 era," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Khatai Aliyev & Sugra Humbatova & Natig Hajiyev Gadim-Oglu, 2023. "How Oil Price Changes Affect Inflation in an Oil-Exporting Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-11, March.
    19. Baghish Ahmadov, 2024. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Import of Capital Goods in Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 512-517, May.
    20. Abdulrazak Nur Mohamed & Idiris Sid Ali Mohamed, 2023. "Precious Metals and Oil Price Dynamics," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 119-128, November.
    21. Sugra Humbatova, 2023. "The Impact of Oil Prices on State Budget Income and Expenses: Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 189-212, January.
    22. Zulfigarov, Farid & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2020. "The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    23. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Ogunbowale, Gideon O. & Akinseye, Ademola B. & Oduyemi, Gabriel O., 2021. "Improving the predictability of stock returns with global financial cycle and oil price in oil-exporting African countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 166-181.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; economic growth; export; exchange rate; inflation; VECM; Azerbaijan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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