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The Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation: The Case of Azerbaijan

Author

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  • Shahriyar Mukhtarov

    (Department of World Economy, Baku Engineering University, Baku AZ0101, Azerbaijan)

  • Jeyhun Mammadov

    (Department of Economics and Management, Khazar University, 41 Mehseti Str., Baku AZ1096, Azerbaijan,)

  • Fariz Ahmadov

    (Department of Economics and Business Administration, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Istiqlaliyyat Str. 6, Baku AZ1141, Azerbaijan.)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation, oil prices and exchange rate in Azerbaijan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to the data ranging from 1995 to 2017. The results from cointegration method confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Moreover, estimation results of VECM show that the oil prices and exchange rate have positive and statistically significant impact on inflation in the long-run. This implies that 1% increase in oil prices and exchange rate increases inflation by 0.58% and 1.81%, respectively. Results of the study also reveal that inflation is observed during the periods of both high and low oil prices, and the exchange rate acts as the transmission channel from oil prices to inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Jeyhun Mammadov & Fariz Ahmadov, 2019. "The Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 97-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2019-04-12
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    Cited by:

    1. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2020. "Analysis of Inflation Trends in Urban and Rural Parts of Azerbaijan: Main Drivers and Links to Oil Revenue," EconStor Preprints 226217, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Emara, Noha & Zecheru, Daniela, 2022. "Is the Impact of Digitization on Domestic Inflation Non-Linear? The Case of Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 106015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Pessey, Snowdein, 2023. "Effects of Petroleum Deregulation and Petroleum Taxation Policies On Inflation In Ghana," MPRA Paper 120313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Noha Emara & Daniela Zecheru, 2024. "Asymmetric threshold effects of digitization on inflation in emerging markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, December.
    5. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Sugra Humbatova & Mubariz Mammadli & Natig Gadim‒Oglu Hajiyev, 2021. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on National Income: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-11, March.
    6. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2022. "Textile and Chemical Subsectors in the Azerbaijani Economy: A Descriptive Glance at Possible De-Industrialization," EconStor Preprints 250900, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Edouard Mien, 2022. "Impact of Oil Price and Oil Production on Inflation in the CEMAC," Post-Print hal-03790291, HAL.
    8. Bello Abdullahi MUHAMMAD & Muhammad Shehu SHUAIBU & Mohammad Junaid ALAM & Lawan Nasiru SALISU, 2023. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Nigeria's Inflation," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 3, pages 5-16.
    9. Rıdvan Karacan & Mehmet Emin Yardımcı, 2024. "Free market economy: Is the market or prices free? Theory and evidence from the United States," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 83(1), pages 59-74, January.
    10. Hlongwane, Nyiko Worship, 2022. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates in South Africa," MPRA Paper 113209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Sannur Aliyev & Javid Zeynalov, 2020. "The Effects of Oil Prices on Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 72-80.
    12. Ting-Ting Sun & Chi-Wei Su & Ran Tao & Meng Qin, 2021. "Are Agricultural Commodity Prices on a Conventional Wisdom with Inflation?," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.
    13. Tacinur AKCA, 2023. "Causal Relationship Between Transport Inflation with Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 245-260, January.
    14. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2021. "The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    15. Khatai Aliyev & Sugra Humbatova & Natig Hajiyev Gadim-Oglu, 2023. "How Oil Price Changes Affect Inflation in an Oil-Exporting Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-11, March.
    16. Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin & Nikolay Petrovich Pilnik & Ivan Pavlovich Stankevich, 2021. "Modelling Five Variables BVAR for Economic Policies and Growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005 2020," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 510-518.
    17. Abdulrazak Nur Mohamed & Idiris Sid Ali Mohamed, 2023. "Precious Metals and Oil Price Dynamics," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 119-128, November.
    18. Orkhan Tashakkul Sadigov, 2020. "Effective Ways to Inject Oil Revenues into the Economy in Oil Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 319-323.
    19. Mien, Edouard, 2022. "Impact of oil price and oil production on inflation in the CEMAC," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Oil Price; Exchange Rate; VECM; Azerbaijan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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