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Impact of Oil Price Increases on U.S. Economic Growth:Causality Analysis and Study of the Weakening Effects in Relationship

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  • Sahbi FARHANI

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunisia)

Abstract

The two oil shocks of the 1970s reduced the GDP growth rate, and since that period, sudden oil price increases have been considered as a major source of economic slowdown in the world. We thus estimate simple linear regression model (SLRM), dynamic regression model (DRM) and VAR model to evaluate the impact of oil price increases on the U.S economic growth. Our results indicate strong weaknesses on the relation between these two factors in what way that the relation has had a low significant effect caused by the existence of breakpoints and the asymmetric effects of the oil price variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Sahbi FARHANI, 2012. "Impact of Oil Price Increases on U.S. Economic Growth:Causality Analysis and Study of the Weakening Effects in Relationship," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 108-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2012-03-4
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    2. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Sannur Aliyev & Javid Zeynalov, 2020. "The Effects of Oil Prices on Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 72-80.
    3. Eduardo Saucedo & Jorge González, 2019. "Efecto de los precios del petróleo en la actividad económica sectorial de México. Análisis para el periodo 2002-2018," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(2), pages 221-243, Abril-Jun.
    4. Sahbi Farhani & Anissa Chaibi & Christophe Rault, 2014. "A study of CO2 emissions, output,energy consumption, and trade," Working Papers 2014-56, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ahmed, Khalid & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jiao, Zhilun, 2019. "Resource curse hypothesis and role of oil prices in USA," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Sevda Yaprakli & Fatih Kaplan, 2015. "Re-examining of the Turkish Crude Oil Import Demand with Multi-structural Breaks Analysis in the Long Run Period," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 402-407.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Gozgor, Giray & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Human capital and export diversification as new determinants of energy demand in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 335-349.
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    9. Thomas M. Fullerton & Teodulo Soto, 2015. "Oil Shock Impacts on the Borderplex Regional Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 14-26.
    10. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-056 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Farhani, Sahbi & Chaibi, Anissa & Rault, Christophe, 2014. "CO2 emissions, output, energy consumption, and trade in Tunisia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 426-434.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:201415 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Tomader Elhassan, 2021. "Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 579-585.
    14. Dmitry Burakov, 2017. "Oil Prices, Economic Growth and Emigration: An Empirical Study of Transmission Channel," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 90-98.
    15. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-582 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil shocks; GDP growth rate; SLRM; DRM; VAR model; Breakpoints; Asymmetrical effects.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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