IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/arp/ijefrr/2019p86-93.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Prices-Inflation Nexus: A Historical Analysis for the Case of Ottoman Empire

Author

Listed:
  • Özgür Özaydın

    (Department of Economics, FEAS, Ondokuz Mayıs University, Samsun, Turkey)

Abstract

In this paper, the link between energy prices and price level is investigated from a historical perspective for the case of Ottoman Empire during the period 1885-1914. Although the unit root test results revealed that none of the variables are integrated of second or higher order, the findings of the unit root tests were conflicting. Therefore, to investigate the dynamic relations between energy prices and inflation, ARDL approach to cointegration is employed. The results of the bounds tests showed that energy prices and CPI were cointegrated. Furthermore, ARDL long-run results showed that a 1% change in inflation causes a 0.85% change in energy prices in same direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Özgür Özaydın, 2019. "Energy Prices-Inflation Nexus: A Historical Analysis for the Case of Ottoman Empire," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(4), pages 86-93, 04-2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arp:ijefrr:2019:p:86-93
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.arpgweb.com/pdf-files/ijefr5(4)86-93.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.arpgweb.com/journal/5/archive/04-2019/4/5
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    2. Darby, Michael R, 1982. "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 738-751, September.
    3. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    4. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.
    5. Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2010. "Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 3-14, September.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    7. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    8. Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Sertoglu, Kamil & Candemir, Mehmet & Mercan, Mehmet, 2015. "Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 257-270.
    9. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    10. Robert Hampton & George A. Kahn, 1990. "Possible monetary policy responses to the Iraqi oil shock," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 75(Nov), pages 19-32.
    11. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    12. Zhao, Lin & Zhang, Xun & Wang, Shouyang & Xu, Shanying, 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 101-110.
    13. Gao, Liping & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Saba, Richard, 2013. "How Does the Oil Price Shock Affect Consumers?," MPRA Paper 49565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    16. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    17. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Input Price Shocks and the Slowdown in Economic Growth: The Case of U.K.Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 0851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Gao, Liping & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Saba, Richard, 2014. "How do oil price shocks affect consumer prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 313-323.
    19. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    20. Hillard G. Huntington, 1998. "Crude Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Performance: Where Does the Asymmetry Reside?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 107-132.
    21. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
    22. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    23. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
    24. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 1999. "Oil prices and U.S. aggregate economic activity: a question of neutrality," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 16-23.
    25. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
    26. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-484, June.
    27. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    28. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Input Price Shocks and the Slowdown in Economic Growth: The Case of U.K. Manufacturing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 679-705.
    29. Zhang, Chuanguo & Tu, Xiaohua, 2016. "The effect of global oil price shocks on China's metal markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 131-139.
    30. Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
    31. Markus Arpa & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2006. "Oil Price Shock, Energy Prices and Inflation – A Comparison of Austria and the EU," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 53-77.
    32. Hooker, Mark A, 2002. "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 540-561, May.
    33. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    34. Ewing, Bradley T. & Thompson, Mark A., 2007. "Dynamic cyclical comovements of oil prices with industrial production, consumer prices, unemployment, and stock prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5535-5540, November.
    35. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    36. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O. & Oyewole, Oluwatomisin J. & Akanni, Lateef O., 2017. "Modelling oil price-inflation nexus: The role of asymmetries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 97-106.
    37. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Oil price pass-through into inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 126-133, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    2. Shigeki Ono, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRICs," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 29-45, June.
    3. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    4. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    5. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Narayanan Krishna Kumar, 2020. "Brent Prices and Its Impact on Financial Markets of BRIC Nations," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 19(1), pages 91-108, June.
    7. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.
    8. Lacheheb, Miloud & Sirag, Abdalla, 2019. "Oil price and inflation in Algeria: A nonlinear ARDL approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 217-222.
    9. Heidari, Hassan & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz, 2015. "How Do Different Oil Price Shocks Affect the Relationship Between Oil and Stock Markets?," MPRA Paper 80273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2016.
    10. Jbir, Rafik & Zouari-Ghorbel, Sonia, 2009. "Recent oil price shock and Tunisian economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1041-1051, March.
    11. Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2010. "Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 3-14, September.
    12. Mustafa Kocoglu, 2023. "Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2825-2853, August.
    13. Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Bello, Ajide Kazeem & Agboola, Yusuf H., 2020. "A new insight into oil price-inflation nexus," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. repec:bla:opecrv:v:32:y:2008:i:4:p:343-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jungho Baek & Guimin Lu & Soojoong Nam, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of changes in crude oil prices on economic growth: New evidence from China's 31 provinces," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 328-360, June.
    16. Awerbuch, Shimon & Sauter, Raphael, 2006. "Exploiting the oil-GDP effect to support renewables deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2805-2819, November.
    17. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 137-154, March.
    18. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    19. Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(11), pages 730-739.
    20. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    21. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Pires Manso, José Ramos, 2014. "The linkage between crude oil consumption and economic growth in Latin America: The panel framework investigations for multiple regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-241.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arp:ijefrr:2019:p:86-93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Managing Editor (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.arpgweb.com/?ic=journal&journal=5&info=aims .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.