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Relative Prices, Employment, and the Exchange Rate in an Economy with Foresight

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  • Obstfeld, Maurice

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy in a small, open economy with a floating exchange rate, sticky wages, and rational expectations in both the asset and labor markets. The model developed emphasizes the link between exchange-rate depreciation and nominal wage inflation, embodying it in an expectations-augmented Phillips curve. The economy studied produces both traded and non-traded goods, and thus provides a framework in which to explore the connection between the dynamic behavior of the exchange rate and the supply structure and degree of openness of the economy. In addition, the paper examines the "vicious circle" hypothesis, showing how an explosive cycle of exchange-rate depreciation and wage-price inflation may arise in response to an expected monetary expansion.
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  • Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "Relative Prices, Employment, and the Exchange Rate in an Economy with Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1219-1242, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:50:y:1982:i:5:p:1219-42
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    1. Wilson, Charles A, 1979. "Anticipated Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 639-647, June.
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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977, Elsevier.
    2. Guillermo Le Fort, 1986. "La Dinámica de Ajuste del Tipo de Cambio Real y la Tasa de Interés Real luego de una Devaluación," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 23(68), pages 49-68.
    3. AKITOBY, Bernardin, 1997. "Rigidité normale, dévaluation et équilibre général intertemporel," Cahiers de recherche 9708, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    4. Threemonkong, Attapol, 1992. "An intertemporal-optimizing general equilibrium model of exchange rates and external imbalances," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000012961, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Thomas C. Glaessner, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of a dynamic model of exchange rate determination: an application of general method of moments techniques," International Finance Discussion Papers 208, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1982. "Flexible Exchange Rates and Interdependence," NBER Working Papers 1035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mena, Hugo, 1996. "Some theoretical issues in modelling Latin American countries within an equilibrium framework: The role of credit markets in consumption and labour market behaviour," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 41-65, January.

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