IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecb/ecbrbu/20230111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The outlook is mixed: the asymmetric effects of weather shocks on inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Ciccarelli, Matteo
  • Kuik, Friderike
  • Martínez Hernández, Catalina

Abstract

Climate change has implications for price stability and the work of central banks. It may increase the volatility and heterogeneity of inflation, and hotter summers may lead to more frequent and persistent upward pressures on food and services inflation. Our empirical study provides evidence for the four largest euro area economies and outlines the relationship between temperature and inflation. JEL Classification: Q54, E31, C32

Suggested Citation

  • Ciccarelli, Matteo & Kuik, Friderike & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "The outlook is mixed: the asymmetric effects of weather shocks on inflation," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 111.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2023:0111:
    Note: 224580
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-research/resbull/2023/html/ecb.rb231010~d34f3708ac.en.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-research/resbull/2023/html/ecb.rb231010~d34f3708ac.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    2. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Mansur, Erin T., 2014. "Measuring climatic impacts on energy consumption: A review of the empirical literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 522-530.
    3. Miles Parker, 2018. "The Impact of Disasters on Inflation," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 21-48, April.
    4. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    5. Natoli, Filippo, 2022. "Temperature surprise shocks," MPRA Paper 112568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Schlenker, Wolfram, 2014. "Empirical studies on agricultural impacts and adaptation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 555-561.
    7. Faccia, Donata & Parker, Miles & Stracca, Livio, 2021. "Feeling the heat: extreme temperatures and price stability," Working Paper Series 2626, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yannis Dafermos, 2024. "The climate crisis meets the ECB: tinkering around the edges or paradigm shift?," Working Papers 264, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    2. Conefrey, Thomas & McCann, Fergal & O'Brien, Martin, 2024. "Economic policy issues in the Irish housing market," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 68-119, September.
    3. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Kuik, Friderike & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of weather shocks on euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2798, European Central Bank.
    2. Chaitat Jirophat & Pym Manopimoke & Suparit Suwanik, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Shocks in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 188, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Pablo Garcia Sanchez, 2022. "Introduction to weather extremes and monetary policy," BCL working papers 163, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    4. Jimmy Karlsson, 2021. "Temperature and Exports: Evidence from the United States," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(2), pages 311-337, October.
    5. Chang, Jun-Jie & Mi, Zhifu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Temperature and GDP: A review of climate econometrics analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 383-392.
    6. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Lucidi, Francesco Simone & Pisa, Marta Maria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2024. "The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    8. François Cohen & Matthieu Glachant & Magnus Söderberg, 2017. "The cost of adapting to climate change: evidence from the US residential sector," Working Papers hal-01695171, HAL.
    9. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Wossink, Ada & Hall, Alastair, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial panel data approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. R. Jisung Park & Joshua Goodman & Michael Hurwitz & Jonathan Smith, 2020. "Heat and Learning," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 306-339, May.
    11. Lehr, Jakob & Rehdanz, Katrin, 2024. "The effect of temperature on energy related CO2 emissions and economic performance in German industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Eyer, Jonathan & Wichman, Casey J., 2018. "Does water scarcity shift the electricity generation mix toward fossil fuels? Empirical evidence from the United States," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 224-241.
    13. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Ubabukoh, Chisom L., 2023. "Re-examining the impact of annual weather fluctuations on global livestock production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    14. Huynh, Cong Minh & Phan, Thi Nga, 2024. "Climate change and income inequality: Does renewable energy matter?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    15. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Cost of Climate Volatility," Working Papers 928, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    16. Kotz, Maximilian & Kuik, Friderike & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane, 2023. "The impact of global warming on inflation: averages, seasonality and extremes," Working Paper Series 2821, European Central Bank.
    17. Yongping Sun & Xin Zou & Xunpeng Shi & Ping Zhang, 2019. "The economic impact of climate risks in China: evidence from 47-sector panel data, 2000–2014," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 289-308, January.
    18. Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet & Céline Guivarch, 2016. "Global warming as an asymmetric public bad," Working Papers 2016.26, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    19. Medhavi Sandhani & Anubhab Pattanayak & K.S. Kavi Kumar, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Economic Growth: A Case Study of India," Working Papers 2020-204, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    20. Feriga, Moustafa & Lozano Gracia, Nancy & Serneels, Pieter, 2024. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work Lessons for Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 16914, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; inflation; temperature shocks; vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2023:0111:. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.