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Inflation dynamics in India: A hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve approach

Author

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  • Jagadish Prasad Sahu

    (Institute of Economic Growth, University of Delhi Enclave, Delhi-110007, India)

Abstract

This paper examines the short run inflation dynamics in India over the period 1996-97 to 2009-10 using quarterly data. I estimate an open-economy version of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and find that the hybrid NKPC provides a robust explanation of the dynamics of both wholesale price index (all commodities) inflation and manufacturing sector inflation over the sample period after considering supply shocks. Specifically, the price setting agents in the economy are guided by both backward-looking and forward-looking behaviours. The agricultural and the industrial output gaps (used separately to account for the role of sectoral characteristics), fuel inflation, exchange rate and foreign inflation are significant determinants of the wholesale price index inflation. All the variables except exchange rate are found to be significant in determining the manufacturing sector inflation in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Jagadish Prasad Sahu, 2013. "Inflation dynamics in India: A hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2634-2647.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Barros, Geraldo Sant’Ana de Camargo & Carrara, Aniela Fagundes & Castro, Nicole Rennó & Silva, Adriana Ferreira, 2022. "Agriculture and inflation: Expected and unexpected shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 178-188.
    4. Kamal, Khnd. Md. Mostafa, 2014. "Impact of Imported Intermediate Goods on Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from India," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 37(04), pages 53-63, December.
    5. Narayan, Seema & Cirikisuva, Salote & Naivutu, Revoni, 2023. "A hybrid NKPC inflation model for the small Island state of Fiji," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 873-886.
    6. Sardor Sadykov, 2018. "Modelling Of Inflationary Processes In Uzbekistan On The Basis Of The New Keynesian Philips Curve," Economics and Management, Faculty of Economics, SOUTH-WEST UNIVERSITY "NEOFIT RILSKI", BLAGOEVGRAD, vol. 14(2), pages 72-99.
    7. Biswajit Maitra, 2016. "Inflation Dynamics in India: Relative Role of Structural and Monetary Factors," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(2), pages 237-255, December.
    8. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(2), pages 144-179, December.
    9. Saakshi Jha & Sohini Sahu, 2020. "Forecasting inflation for India with the Phillips Curve: Evidence from internet search data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2372-2379.
    10. Shesadri Banerjee & Harendra Behera, 2023. "Financial frictions, bank intermediation and monetary policy transmission in India," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 749-785, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve; inflation; India.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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