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Robustness of alternative non-linearity tests for SETAR models

Author

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  • Man-Wai Ng

    (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

  • Wai-Sum Chan

    (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

Abstract

In recent years there has been a growing interest in exploiting potential forecast gains from the non-linear structure of self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. Statistical tests have been proposed in the literature to help analysts check for the presence of SETAR-type non-linearities in an observed time series. It is important to study the power and robustness properties of these tests since erroneous test results might lead to misspecified prediction problems. In this paper we investigate the robustness properties of several commonly used non-linearity tests. Both the robustness with respect to outlying observations and the robustness with respect to model specification are considered. The power comparison of these testing procedures is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that all of the existing tests are not robust to outliers and model misspecification. Finally, an empirical application applies the statistical tests to stock market returns of the four little dragons (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) in East Asia. The non-linearity tests fail to provide consistent conclusions most of the time. The results in this article stress the need for a more robust test for SETAR-type non-linearity in time series analysis and forecasting. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Man-Wai Ng & Wai-Sum Chan, 2004. "Robustness of alternative non-linearity tests for SETAR models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 215-231.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:23:y:2004:i:3:p:215-231
    DOI: 10.1002/for.915
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    Cited by:

    1. King Chi Hung & Siu Hung Cheung & Wai-Sum Chan & Li-Xin Zhang, 2009. "On a robust test for SETAR-type nonlinearity in time series analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 445-464.
    2. Joseph D. Petruccelli & Alina Onofrei & Jayson D. Wilbur, 2009. "A robust Cusum test for SETAR-type nonlinearity in time series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 266-276.
    3. Chakradhara Panda & V. Narasimhan, 2006. "Predicting Stock Returns," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 7(2), pages 205-218, September.
    4. Yoon, Gawon, 2009. "It's all the miners' fault: On the nonlinearity in U.S. unemployment rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1449-1454, November.
    5. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.
    6. Kugiumtzis Dimitris, 2008. "Evaluation of Surrogate and Bootstrap Tests for Nonlinearity in Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-26, March.
    7. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2017. "Forecasting electricity prices through robust nonlinear models," Working Papers 06/2017, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    8. Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert & Hoque, Hafiz, 2015. "Return predictability and the ‘wisdom of crowds’: Genetic Programming trading algorithms, the Marginal Trader Hypothesis and the Hayek Hypothesis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 85-98.
    9. Yavuz, Nilgün Çil & Yilanci, Veli, 2012. "Testing For Nonlinearity In G7 Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 69-79, September.
    10. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2018. "The influence of renewables on electricity price forecasting: a robust approach," Working Papers 2018/10, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).

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