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A new look at contraceptive prevalence plateaus in sub-Saharan Africa: A probabilistic approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Wheldon

    (United Nations Population Division)

  • Vladimíra Kantorová

    (United Nations)

  • Joseph Molitoris

    (United Nations)

  • Aisha Dasgupta

    (United Nations)

Abstract

Background: Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa has been slower than in other regions, with the periods of extremely slow transitions frequently described as stalled. Lack of investment in family planning programs has been proposed as a key contributing factor. However, while there is a large literature on fertility transition stalls, similar phenomena in contraceptive prevalence trends have received less attention. Objective: We propose a probabilistic method for detecting plateaus in modern contraceptive prevalence (MCP) and in demand for family planning satisfied by modern methods (DS). Methods: We defined a contraceptive prevalence plateau in terms of level, rate, and probability conditions, each with associated thresholds for a plateau to be identified. We used probabilistic annual model-based estimates of family planning indicators and a simple smoothing approach to produce annual estimates of plateau probabilities under a variety of thresholds. Results: We applied our method to 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1980–2019 and found plateaus in MCP in ten countries (half in western Africa) and plateaus in DS in two (Niger and Nigeria). We found no indication of a temporal association between MCP plateaus and fertility transition stalls, although we observed that some fertility transition stalls occurred when MCP was low. Contribution: Our method provides an updated, robust way to identify plateaus in contraceptive prevalence. Moreover, it could feasibly be applied to probabilistic model-based estimates of other demographic indicators, such as total fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Wheldon & Vladimíra Kantorová & Joseph Molitoris & Aisha Dasgupta, 2024. "A new look at contraceptive prevalence plateaus in sub-Saharan Africa: A probabilistic approach," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(31), pages 899-928.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:50:y:2024:i:31
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2024.50.31
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John B. Casterline & John Bongaarts & Ian Askew & Ndugga Maggwa & Francis Obare, 2017. "Fertility Transitions in Ghana and Kenya: Trends, Determinants, and Implications for Policy and Programs," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43, pages 289-307, May.
    2. John B. Casterline & John Bongaarts & Patrick Gerland & Ann Biddlecom & Vladimíra Kantorová, 2017. "Patterns of Fertility Decline and the Impact of Alternative Scenarios of Future Fertility Change in sub-Saharan Africa," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43, pages 21-38, May.
    3. Yoonjoung Choi & Madeleine Short Fabic & Jacob Adetunji, 2018. "Does age-adjusted measurement of contraceptive use better explain the relationship between fertility and contraception?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(45), pages 1227-1240.
    4. Aisha Dasgupta & Philipp Ueffing & Vladimíra Kantorová & Mark Wheldon, 2022. "Contraceptive use and fertility transitions: The distinctive experience of sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(4), pages 97-130.
    5. United Nations UN, 2015. "Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," Working Papers id:7559, eSocialSciences.
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    8. Caroline Krafft & Maia Sieverding & Elizabeth Kula, 2021. "An investigation of Jordan’s fertility stall and resumed decline: The role of proximate determinants," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(19), pages 605-652.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    family planning; probabilistic model; contraceptive prevalence plateaus; demand for family planning; modern contraceptive prevalence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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