IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v37y2017i40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • David Shapiro

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Andrew Hinde

    (University of Southampton)

Abstract

Background: This descriptive finding examines the comparative pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, relative to Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa. Objective: We seek to determine if fertility decline has been slower in sub-Saharan Africa than elsewhere in the developing world. Methods: United Nations 2017 estimates of national fertility are used in assessing the comparative pace of fertility decline, and the four regions are compared in terms of how far they are into their fertility transition. Results: The data shows clearly that fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, still at a comparatively early stage, has been considerably slower than the earlier declines in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa at comparable stages of the transition, and displays less within-region heterogeneity than the transitions in these other regions. Conclusions: The slower pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, in conjunction with the high current fertility levels in the region, means that in the absence of policies seeking to accelerate fertility decline, sub-Saharan Africa will continue to experience rapid population growth that in turn will constrain its development. Contribution: Presentation of data in a novel way (Figures 2‒4, and associated calculations) unambiguously demonstrates the slow pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa compared with other regions of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • David Shapiro & Andrew Hinde, 2017. "On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(40), pages 1327-1338.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:37:y:2017:i:40
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.40
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol37/40/37-40.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.40?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Bongaarts & John Casterline, 2013. "Fertility Transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa Different?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38, pages 153-168, February.
    2. John Bryant, 2007. "Theories of Fertility Decline and the Evidence from Development Indicators," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 101-127, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Bocquier & Ashira Menashe-Oren & Wanli Nie, 2023. "Migration’s contribution to the urban transition: Direct census estimates from Africa and Asia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(24), pages 681-732.
    2. David Shapiro & Andrew Hinde, 2020. "Laggards in the global fertility transition," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 123-140.
    3. Michael Ekholuenetale & Olah Uloko Owobi & Benedict Terfa Shishi, 2022. "Socioeconomic Position in Modern Contraceptive Uptake and Fertility Rate among Women of Childbearing Age in 37 Sub-Saharan Countries," World, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Thomas Spoorenberg, 2019. "Forty years of fertility changes in the Sahel," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(46), pages 1289-1314.
    5. Mark Wheldon & Vladimíra Kantorová & Joseph Molitoris & Aisha Dasgupta, 2024. "A new look at contraceptive prevalence plateaus in sub-Saharan Africa: A probabilistic approach," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(31), pages 899-928.
    6. Tomáš Sobotka, 2020. "Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24.
    7. Hannes Weber, 2018. "Higher acceptance rates of asylum seekers lead to slightly more asylum applications in the future," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(47), pages 1291-1304.
    8. Mathias Lerch & Thomas Spoorenberg, 2020. "The emergence of birth limitation as a new stage in the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(30), pages 827-858.
    9. Bruno D. Schoumaker & David A. Sánchez‐Páez, 2024. "Disruptions in Educational Progress and Fertility Dynamics by Educational Level: Unraveling the Link between Education and Fertility Stalls in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(1), pages 59-85, March.
    10. Ben Malinga John, 2023. "Neglected forces of fertility variation in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of marital dissolution and repartnering," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-031, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Endale Kebede, 2019. "The Relative Importance of Female Education on Fertility Desires in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Multi-Level Analysis," VID Working Papers 1909, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    2. Athena Pantazis & Samuel J Clark, 2018. "A parsimonious characterization of change in global age-specific and total fertility rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Martin Flatø, 2018. "The Differential Mortality of Undesired Infants in Sub-Saharan Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(1), pages 271-294, February.
    4. Tomáš Sobotka, 2020. "Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24.
    5. David Roodman, 2020. "The impact of life-saving interventions on fertility," Papers 2007.11388, arXiv.org.
    6. Tia Palermo & Sudhanshu Handa & Amber Peterman & Leah Prencipe & David Seidenfeld, 2016. "Unconditional government social cash transfer in Africa does not increase fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 1083-1111, October.
    7. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    8. Yong Cai, 2010. "China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Government Policy or Socioeconomic Development?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 419-440, September.
    9. John B. Casterline, 2009. "Demographic Transition and Unwanted Fertility: A Fresh Assessment (The Mahbub Ul Haq Memorial Lecture)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 387-421.
    10. Oriana Bandiera & Ahmed Elsayed & Andrea Smurra & Céline Zipfel, 2022. "Young Adults and Labor Markets in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 81-100, Winter.
    11. Anthony Mveyange, 2015. "On the fertility transition in Africa: Income, child mortality, or education?," WIDER Working Paper Series 089, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Büttner, Nicolas & Grimm, Michael & Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth & Klasen, Stephan, 2022. "The fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of structural change," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-90-22, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    13. Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2021. "Women’s reproductive health and economic activity: A narrative review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Working Papers 2019-2, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    15. Roch Millogo & Clémentine Rossier, 2022. "Fertility Transition in Dakar, Nairobi, and Ouagadougou Since the 1970s: An Identical Reduction at All Ages Through Modern Contraception?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 2115-2142, October.
    16. Narae Park & Dean Spears & Sangita Vyas & Kathleen Broussard, 2023. "Near-universal marriage, early childbearing, and low fertility: India’s alternative fertility transition," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(34), pages 945-956.
    17. Grimm, Michael, 2016. "Rainfall Risk and Fertility: Evidence from Farm Settlements during the American Demographic Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 10351, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Oryoie, Ali Reza & Alwang, Jeffrey & Tideman, Nicolaus, 2017. "Child Labor and Household Land Holding: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 45-58.
    19. Dasgupta, P., 2016. "Birth and Death," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1660, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Erez Yerushalmi & Evelyn Shyamala Devadason & Mazlan Majid, 2018. "Determinants of Infant Mortality in Older ASEAN Economies," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 397-415, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; fertility decline; sub-Saharan Africa; Asia; Latin America; Caribbean; North Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:37:y:2017:i:40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.