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A parsimonious characterization of change in global age-specific and total fertility rates

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  • Athena Pantazis
  • Samuel J Clark

Abstract

This study aims to understand trends in global fertility from 1950-2010 though the analysis of age-specific fertility rates. This approach incorporates both the overall level, as when the total fertility rate is modeled, and different patterns of age-specific fertility to examine the relationship between changes in age-specific fertility and fertility decline. Singular value decomposition is used to capture the variation in age-specific fertility curves while reducing the number of dimensions, allowing curves to be described nearly fully with three parameters. Regional patterns and trends over time are evident in parameter values, suggesting this method provides a useful tool for considering fertility decline globally. The second and third parameters were analyzed using model-based clustering to examine patterns of age-specific fertility over time and place; four clusters were obtained. A country’s demographic transition can be traced through time by membership in the different clusters, and regional patterns in the trajectories through time and with fertility decline are identified.

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  • Athena Pantazis & Samuel J Clark, 2018. "A parsimonious characterization of change in global age-specific and total fertility rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0190574
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190574
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sheng-Miauh Huang & Ling-Ming Tseng & Jerry Cheng-Yen Lai & Yi-Fang Tsai & Pei-Ju Lien & Ping-Ho Chen, 2020. "Impact of Symptom and Social Support on Fertility Intention in Reproductive-Age Women With Breast Cancer," Clinical Nursing Research, , vol. 29(6), pages 411-418, July.
    2. Andrés F. Castro Torres & Ewa Batyra & Mikko Myrskylä, 2021. "Income inequality and increasing dispersion of the transition to first birth in the Global South," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-009, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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