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Investigating survivorship bias: the case of the 1918 flu pandemic

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  • Joël Floris
  • Laurent Kaiser
  • Harald Mayr
  • Kaspar Staub
  • Ulrich Woitek

Abstract

Estimates of the effect of foetal health shocks may suffer from survivorship bias. The foetal origins literature seemingly agrees that survivorship bias is innocuous in the sense that it induces a bias towards zero. Arguably, however, selective mortality can imply a bias away from zero. In the case of the 1918 flu pandemic, a suppressed immune system may have been protective against the most severe consequences of infection. We use historical birth records from the maternity hospital of Bern, Switzerland, to evaluate this possibility. Our results suggest that a careful consideration of survivorship bias is imperative for the evaluation of the 1918 flu pandemic and other foetal health shocks.

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  • Joël Floris & Laurent Kaiser & Harald Mayr & Kaspar Staub & Ulrich Woitek, 2022. "Investigating survivorship bias: the case of the 1918 flu pandemic," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(21), pages 2047-2052, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:29:y:2022:i:21:p:2047-2052
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2021.1971614
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bernhard, Marco & Leuch, Corina & Kordi, Maryam & Gruebner, Oliver & Matthes, Katarina L. & Floris, Joël & Staub, Kaspar, 2023. "From pandemic to endemic: Spatial-temporal patterns of influenza-like illness incidence in a Swiss canton, 1918–1924," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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