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The causal effect of an additional sibling on completed fertility: An estimation of intergenerational fertility correlations by looking at siblings of twins

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  • Martin Kolk

    (Stockholms Universitet)

Abstract

Background: Intergenerational transmission of fertility - a correlation between number of siblings and adult fertility - has been consistently demonstrated in developed countries. However, there is only limited knowledge of the causes of this correlation. Objective: This study estimates the effect of an exogenous increase of number of siblings on adult fertility for men and women using Swedish register data. The effect of an additional sibling is estimated from the birth of younger twin siblings by means of instrumental variable methods. Results: The study shows that there is no clear effect of an exogenous increase in the number of siblings on completed fertility. There is some evidence that an additional sibling is associated with lower fertility in adulthood. Conclusions: The results indicate that intergenerational transmission of fertility is due to factors shared between parents and children such as preferences or socioeconomic status, not directly related to the size of the family of upbringing. There is no effect on fertility in adulthood of having an additional sibling per se.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Kolk, 2015. "The causal effect of an additional sibling on completed fertility: An estimation of intergenerational fertility correlations by looking at siblings of twins," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(51), pages 1409-1420.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:32:y:2015:i:51
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.51
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhalotra, Sonia & Clarke, Damian, 2022. "Analysis of Twins," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1428, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Kathrin Morosow & Martin Kolk, 2020. "How Does Birth Order and Number of Siblings Affect Fertility? A Within-Family Comparison Using Swedish Register Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(2), pages 197-233, April.
    3. Rannveig Kaldager Hart & Sara Cools, 2017. "Identifying fertility contagion using random fertility shocks," Discussion Papers 861, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    4. Sara Cools & Rannveig Kaldager Hart, 2017. "The Effect of Childhood Family Size on Fertility in Adulthood: New Evidence From IV Estimation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(1), pages 23-44, February.
    5. Eva Beaujouan & Anne Solaz, 2019. "Is the Family Size of Parents and Children Still Related? Revisiting the Cross-Generational Relationship Over the Last Century," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(2), pages 595-619, April.
    6. Rannveig Hart & Sara Cools, 2019. "Identifying interaction effects using random fertility shocks," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(10), pages 261-278.
    7. Yongkun Yin, 2022. "Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility: Evidence from China’s Population Control Policies," Working Papers wp2022_2211, CEMFI.
    8. Öberg, Stefan, 2018. "Instrumental variables based on twin births are by definition not valid (v.3.0)," SocArXiv zux9s, Center for Open Science.
    9. Bruno Arpino & Jordi Gumà-Lao & Albert Julià, 2018. "Family histories and the demography of grandparenthood," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(42), pages 1105-1150.
    10. Johan Dahlberg & Martin Kolk, 2018. "Explaining Swedish sibling similarity in fertility: Parental fertility behavior vs. social background," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(32), pages 883-896.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    instrumental variables; fertility; Sweden; intergenerational transmission of fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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