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Discussing the Strehler-Mildvan model of mortality

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  • Maxim Finkelstein

    (University of the Free State)

Abstract

Background: Half a century ago Strehler and Mildvan (1960) have published the seminal paper that, based on some assumptions (postulates), theoretically 'justified' the Gompertz law of mortality. Objective: We wish to discuss assumptions and limitations of the original Strehler-Mildvan model (as well as of the Strehler-Mildvan correlation) and consider some modifications and departures from this model. Methods: We use the framework of stochastic point processes for analyzing the original Strehler-Mildvan model. We also suggest the 'lifesaving approach' for describing the departure from rectangularization to shifts in survival curves for human mortality that has been observed in the second half of the previous century. Results: We show that the Strehler-Mildvan model can be justified only under the additional assumption that the process of shocks (demands for energy) follows the Poisson pattern. We also suggest a modification that accounts for the oldest-old mortality plateau.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxim Finkelstein, 2012. "Discussing the Strehler-Mildvan model of mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(9), pages 191-206.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:26:y:2012:i:9
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Missov, Trifon I. & Finkelstein, Maxim, 2011. "Admissible mixing distributions for a general class of mixture survival models with known asymptotics," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 64-70.
    2. David Steinsaltz & Kenneth Wachter, 2006. "Understanding Mortality Rate Deceleration and Heterogeneity," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 19-37.
    3. Konstantin Arbeev & Svetlana Ukraintseva & Lyubov S. Arbeeva & Anatoli Yashin, 2005. "Mathematical Models for Human Cancer Incidence Rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 12(10), pages 237-272.
    4. Li, Ting & Anderson, James J., 2009. "The vitality model: A way to understand population survival and demographic heterogeneity," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 118-131.
    5. Hui Zheng & Yang Yang & Kenneth Land, 2011. "Heterogeneity in the Strehler-Mildvan General Theory of Mortality and Aging," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(1), pages 267-290, February.
    6. John Bongaarts & Griffith Feeney, 2002. "How Long Do We Live?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 13-29, March.
    7. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cha, Ji Hwan & Finkelstein, Maxim, 2016. "Justifying the Gompertz curve of mortality via the generalized Polya process of shocks," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 54-62.
    2. Xiaobai Zhu & Kenneth Q. Zhou & Zijia Wang, 2024. "A new paradigm of mortality modeling via individual vitality dynamics," Papers 2407.15388, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    3. Finkelstein, Maxim, 2013. "Lifesaving, delayed deaths and cure in mortality modeling," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 15-19.
    4. Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, 2014. "Mortality Deceleration and Mortality Selection: Three Unexpected Implications of a Simple Model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 51-71, February.
    5. Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, 2013. "Mortality deceleration is not informative of unobserved heterogeneity in open groups," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 11(1), pages 15-36.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    force of mortality; proportional hazards; vitality; Strehler-Mildvan correlation; Gompertz law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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