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Justifying the Gompertz curve of mortality via the generalized Polya process of shocks

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  • Cha, Ji Hwan
  • Finkelstein, Maxim

Abstract

A new probabilistic model of aging that can be applied to organisms is suggested and analyzed. Organisms are subject to shocks that follow the generalized Polya process (GPP), which has been recently introduced and characterized in the literature. Distinct from the nonhomogeneous Poisson process that has been widely used in applications, the important feature of this process is the dependence of its future behavior on the number of previous events (shocks). The corresponding survival and the mortality rate functions are derived and analyzed. The general approach is used for justification of the Gompertz law of human mortality.

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  • Cha, Ji Hwan & Finkelstein, Maxim, 2016. "Justifying the Gompertz curve of mortality via the generalized Polya process of shocks," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 54-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:109:y:2016:i:c:p:54-62
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2016.03.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Missov, Trifon I. & Finkelstein, Maxim, 2011. "Admissible mixing distributions for a general class of mixture survival models with known asymptotics," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 64-70.
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    8. Trifon I. Missov & Maxim S. Finkelstein, 2011. "Admissible mixing distributions for a general class of mixture survival models with known asymptotics," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2011-004, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Maxim Finkelstein & Ji Hwan Cha, 2013. "Burn-in for Heterogeneous Populations," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: Stochastic Modeling for Reliability, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 261-312, Springer.
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    12. Maxim Finkelstein & Ji Hwan Cha, 2013. "Shocks as Burn-in," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: Stochastic Modeling for Reliability, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 313-361, Springer.
    13. Finkelstein, Maxim, 2012. "On ordered subpopulations and population mortality at advanced ages," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 81(4), pages 292-299.
    14. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
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    1. Francisco Germán Badía & Sophie Mercier & Carmen Sangüesa, 2019. "Extensions of the Generalized Pólya Process," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1057-1085, December.

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