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Discrete Barker Frailty and Warped Mortality Dynamics at Older Ages

Author

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  • Alberto Palloni

    (University of Wisconsin–Madison)

  • Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez

    (University of California–Los Angeles)

Abstract

We develop a discrete variant of a general model for adult mortality influenced by the delayed impact of early conditions on adult health and mortality. The discrete variant of the model builds on an intuitively appealing interpretation of conditions that induce delayed effects and is an extension of the discrete form of the standard frailty model with distinct implications. We show that introducing delayed effects is equivalent to perturbing adult mortality patterns with a particular class of time-/age-varying frailty. We emphasize two main results. First, populations with delayed effects could experience unchanging or increasing adult mortality even when background mortality has been declining for long periods of time. Although this phenomenon also occurs in a regime with standard frailty, the distortions can be more severe under a regime with Barker frailty. As a consequence, conventional interpretations of the observed rates of adult mortality decline in societies that experience Barker frailty may be inappropriate. Second, the observed rate of senescence (slope of adult mortality rates) in populations with delayed effects could increase, decrease, or remain steady over time and across adult ages even though the rate of senescence of the background age pattern of mortality is time- and age-invariant. This second result implies that standard interpretations of empirical estimates of the slope of adult mortality rates in populations with delayed effects may be misleading because they can reflect mechanisms other than those inducing senescence as conventionally understood in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Palloni & Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, 2017. "Discrete Barker Frailty and Warped Mortality Dynamics at Older Ages," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 655-671, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0548-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-017-0548-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Palloni & Laeticia Souza, 2013. "The fragility of the future and the tug of the past," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(21), pages 543-578.
    2. David Steinsaltz & Kenneth Wachter, 2006. "Understanding Mortality Rate Deceleration and Heterogeneity," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 19-37.
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    4. James Vaupel & Anatoli Yashin, 1987. "Repeated resuscitation: How lifesaving alters life tables," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 24(1), pages 123-135, February.
    5. James W. Vaupel & Trifon Missov, 2014. "Unobserved population heterogeneity," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(22), pages 659-686.
    6. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Verhulst & Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez & Alberto Palloni, 2019. "Impact of delayed effects on human old-age mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(41), pages 1167-1210.
    2. Nobles, Jenna & Hamoudi, Amar, 2019. "Detecting the Effects of Early-Life Exposures: Why Fecundity Matters," SocArXiv x4zm6, Center for Open Science.
    3. Jenna Nobles & Amar Hamoudi, 2019. "Detecting the Effects of Early-Life Exposures: Why Fecundity Matters," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(6), pages 783-809, December.

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