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Geographical mortality patterns in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Divino

    (Università degli Studi del Molise)

  • Viviana Egidi

    (Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza)

  • Michele Antonio Salvatore

    (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT))

Abstract

In this paper, we present a hierarchical spatial model for the analysis of geographical variation in mortality between the Italian provinces in the year 2001, according to gender, age class, and cause of death. When analysing counts data specific to geographical locations, classical empirical rates or standardised mortality ratios may produce estimates that show a very high level of overdispersion due to the effect of spatial autocorrelation among the observations, and due to the presence of heterogeneity among the population sizes. We adopt a Bayesian approach and a Markov chain Monte Carlo computation with the goal of making more consistent inferences about the quantities of interest. While considering information for the year 1991, we also take into account a temporal effect from the previous geographical pattern. Results have demonstrated the flexibility of our proposal in evaluating specific aspects of a counts spatial process, such as the clustering effect and the heterogeneity effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Divino & Viviana Egidi & Michele Antonio Salvatore, 2009. "Geographical mortality patterns in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(18), pages 435-466.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:20:y:2009:i:18
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2009.20.18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Fabio Divino & Arnoldo Frigessi & Peter J. Green, 2000. "Penalized Pseudolikelihood Inference in Spatial Interaction Models with Covariates," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 445-458, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Enrique Regidor & Laura Reques & Carolina Giráldez-García & Estrella Miqueleiz & Juana M Santos & David Martínez & Luis de la Fuente, 2015. "The Association of Geographic Coordinates with Mortality in People with Lower and Higher Education and with Mortality Inequalities in Spain," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Vanessa Santos S�nchez & Gabriele Ruiu & Lucia Pozzi & Marco Breschi & Giovanna Gonano, 2020. "Geographical variations in mortality and unemployment in Italy," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 74(2), pages 109-120, April-Jun.
    3. Stephen Matthews & Daniel M. Parker, 2013. "Progress in Spatial Demography," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(10), pages 271-312.
    4. Lanfiuti Baldi, Giacomo & Nigri, Andrea & Trias-Llimos, Sergi & Barbi, Elisabetta, 2025. "The decline of ‘Deaths of Despair’ in Italy: unveiling this phenomenon in a new context," SocArXiv jnq2e, Center for Open Science.
    5. Queiroz, Bernardo L & Lima, Everton & Freire, Flávio & Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto, 2017. "Temporal and spatial estimates of adult mortality for small areas in Brazil, 1980-2010," OSF Preprints jk67t, Center for Open Science.
    6. Zhang Zhen & Bhattacharjee Arnab & Marques João & Maiti Tapabrata, 2021. "Spatio-Temporal Patterns in Portuguese Regional Fertility Rates: A Bayesian Approach for Spatial Clustering of Curves," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(3), pages 611-653, September.
    7. Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto & Queiroz, Bernardo L & Monteiro da Silva, José H C & Lima, Everton & Júnio, Walter P. Silva & DIOGENES, VICTOR HUGO DIAS & Flores-Ortiz, Renzo & da Costa, Lilia Carolina Carne, 2022. "Estimation and projection of probabilistic age- and sex-specific mortality rates across Brazilian municipalities between 2010 and 2030," OSF Preprints egrc9, Center for Open Science.
    8. Sieds, 2020. "Complete Volume LXXIV n. 1 2020," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 74(2), pages 1-123, April-Jun.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hierarchical spatio-temporal model; clustering effect; heterogeneity effect; relative risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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