The decline of ‘Deaths of Despair’ in Italy: unveiling this phenomenon in a new context

The term ”Deaths of Despair” (DoD) refers to mortality due to alcohol consumption, drug use, and suicides. While the concept has predominantly been studied in the United States, where these deaths have increased significantly, this analysis examines its application to Italy, a country with comparatively lower DoD rates. This work aims to analyse the magnitude of these causes of death in Italy and examine both their joint and independent trends to determine whether they can be treated as a single group of causes. We employ the Potential Gain in Life Expectancy to assess the impact of these causes on overall mortality in Italy, then investigate the identified time series leveraging Cointegration Analysis. Utilizing ISTAT data from 1983 to 2018, aggregated by gender and age groups at the NUTS1 level, the study reveals a decline in DoD mortality in Italy, driven mainly by a reduction in alcohol-related deaths. The magnitude and trajectory of the analysed causes offer valuable insights into the unique dynamics of DoD in Italy and its regional variations. Cointegration Analysis indicates that there is no significant dependency structure between these causes or across regions, with only a few exceptions. These findings suggest that in Italy, DoD should not be treated as a homogeneous group, but rather as distinct outcomes of despair that require separate consideration in public health interventions.