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Life Expectancy at Current Rates vs. Current Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • James W. Vaupel

    (Syddansk Universitet)

Abstract

Life expectancy is overestimated if mortality is declining and underestimated if mortality is increasing. This is the fundamental claim made by Bongaarts and Feeney (2002) in their article "How Long Do We Live?", where they base their claim on arguments about "tempo effects on mortality". This Reflexion explains why this claim is true in most heterogeneous populations. It suggests that demographers should be careful about distinguishing between life expectancy under current conditions, which is difficult and problematic to assess, and life expectancy at current rates, which can be estimated using standard methods. Finally, it speculates that there may be a deep connection between tempo and heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • James W. Vaupel, 2002. "Life Expectancy at Current Rates vs. Current Conditions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(8), pages 365-378.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:7:y:2002:i:8
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2002.7.8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea & Paniccia, Renato (ed.), 2000. "The Mortality Crisis in Transitional Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198297413.
    2. John Bongaarts & Griffith Feeney, 2002. "How Long Do We Live?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 13-29, March.
    3. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
    4. James Vaupel & Anatoli Yashin, 1987. "Repeated resuscitation: How lifesaving alters life tables," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 24(1), pages 123-135, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hisashi Inaba, 2007. "Effects of Age Shift on the Tempo and Quantum of Non-Repeatable Events," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 131-168.
    2. Marc Luy, 2005. "The importance of mortality tempo-adjustment: theoretical and empirical considerations," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Marc Luy & Graziella Caselli, 2008. "The impact of a migration-caused selection effect on regional mortality differences in Italy and Germany," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Germán Rodriguez, 2006. "Demographic translation and tempo effects," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(6), pages 85-110.
    5. Maxim S. Finkelstein, 2003. "Age correspondence for different mortality regimes with and without the change point," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-039, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Marc Luy, 2006. "Mortality tempo-adjustment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(21), pages 561-590.
    7. James W. Vaupel, 2005. "Lifesaving, lifetimes and lifetables," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(24), pages 597-614.
    8. Robert Schoen & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2005. "Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(5), pages 117-142.
    9. Kenneth W. Wachter, 2005. "Tempo and its Tribulations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(9), pages 201-222.
    10. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, 2011. "Tempo and the TFR," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 841-861, August.
    11. Aymric Kamega & Frédéric Planchet, 2011. "Hétérogénéité : mesure du risque d'estimation dans le cas d'une modélisation intégrant des facteurs observables," Post-Print hal-00593874, HAL.
    12. James W. Vaupel & Trifon Missov, 2014. "Unobserved population heterogeneity," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(22), pages 659-686.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    life expectancy; heterogeneity; tempo effects; frailty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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