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Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey

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  • Zakrzewicz, Christopher J.
  • Brorsen, B. Wade
  • Briggeman, Brian C.

Abstract

This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions. Bankers' qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, self-reported changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite this action, aggregates of bankers' qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and forecast better than naïve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting land values.

Suggested Citation

  • Zakrzewicz, Christopher J. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Briggeman, Brian C., 2013. "Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 159-170, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:45:y:2013:i:01:p:159-170_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barry Falk & Bong-Soo Lee, 1998. "Fads versus Fundamentals in Farmland Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 696-707.
    2. Emanuel Melichar, 1979. "Capital Gains versus Current Income in the Farming Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(5), pages 1085-1092.
    3. Pope, Rulon D. & Kramer, Randall A. & Green, Richard D. & Gardner, B. Delworth, 1979. "An Evaluation Of Econometric Models Of U.S. Farmland Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 4(01), pages 1-14, July.
    4. William R. Keeton & Michael Verba, 2004. "What can regional manufacturing surveys tell us? lessons from the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q III), pages 39-70.
    5. Barry Falk, 1991. "Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(1), pages 1-10.
    6. Falk, Barry L., 1991. "Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11093, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fiechter, Chad & Kuethe, Todd, 2021. "Agricultural Lenders and Farmland Appraisers Disagreement on Farmland Value Expectations," 2021 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition (Virtual Meeting), October 6-7, 2021 316031, Regional Research Committee NC-1177 (formerly NC-1014): Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    2. Ates, Aaron M. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2019. "Forecasting Meat Prices Using Consumer Expectations from the Food Demand Survey (FooDS)," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 50(01), March.
    3. Deokho Cho, 2015. "The Forecasting of Farmland Values for the Settlement of Farmland Pension System," ERSA conference papers ersa15p12, European Regional Science Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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