IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/wjagec/32436.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Evaluation Of Econometric Models Of U.S. Farmland Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Pope, Rulon D.
  • Kramer, Randall A.
  • Green, Richard D.
  • Gardner, B. Delworth

Abstract

Previously published empirical models of U.S. farmland prices are reviewed and reestimated including recent data. It is apparent that structural changes have occurred. A simple single equation econometric model with less economic structure appears to forecast better than a simultaneous equation model. Finally, Box-Jenkins forecasts are roughly as good as those based upon a simultaneous equation econometric model, but somewhat inferior to the single equation model. The results suggest that further research may be needed to explain recent movements of farmland prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Pope, Rulon D. & Kramer, Randall A. & Green, Richard D. & Gardner, B. Delworth, 1979. "An Evaluation Of Econometric Models Of U.S. Farmland Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32436
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.32436
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/32436/files/04010107.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.32436?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald A. Oliveira & Gordon C. Rausser, 1977. "Daily Fluctuations in Campground Use: An Econometric Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(2), pages 283-293.
    2. Morris, Douglas E., 1978. "Farmland Values And Urbanization," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 30(1), pages 1-4, January.
    3. Luther G. Tweeten & James E. Martin, 1966. "A Methodology for Predicting U.S. Farm Real Estate Price Variation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 378-393.
    4. Andrew Schmitz & Donald G. Watts, 1970. "Forecasting Wheat Yields: An Application of Parametric Time Series Modeling," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(2), pages 247-254.
    5. Duane G. Harris, 1977. "Inflation-Indexed Price Supports and Land Values," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(3), pages 489-495.
    6. Brake, John R. & Melichar, Emanuel, 1977. "Agricultural Finance and Capital Markets," A Survey of Agricultural Economics Literature, Volume 1: Traditional Fields of Agricultural Economics 1940s to 1970s,, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Flowers, Gwendolyn G., 1983. "An economic analysis of the relation of farm land values and returns," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800009469, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Fiske, John Robery, 1983. "The impact of financial constraints on the local price of farm land," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800008710, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Gertel, Karl, 1985. "Differing Effects of Farm Commodity Programs on Land Returns and Land Values," Agricultural Economic Reports 307999, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Jean Cavailhès & Alban Richard & Nathalie Taverdet, 1996. "Des rentes classiques aux options de rentes. Une analyse de l'évolution du prix des terres en France," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(4), pages 963-981.
    5. Robinson, Lindon J. & Siles, Marcelo E., 1999. "Social capital and household income distributions in the United States: 1980, 1990," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 43-93.
    6. Robison, Lindon J. & Colyer, Dale, 1994. "Reflections On Relevance Of Professional Journals," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-16, July.
    7. Shalit, Haim & Schmitz, Andrew, 1984. "Farmland Price Behavior And Credit Allocation," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Gertel, Karl & Atkinson, Linda, 1993. "Structural Models and Automated Alternatives for Forecasting Farmland Prices," Technical Bulletins 156756, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    9. Johnson, James William, 1985. "Land prices: changes and variability: the effect on Iowa grain farms," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000017533, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Patrick de Fontnouvelle & Sergio H. Lence, 2002. "Transaction Costs and the Present Value “Puzzle” of Farmland Prices," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 549-565, January.
    11. Zakrzewicz, Christopher J. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Briggeman, Brian C., 2013. "Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 159-170, February.
    12. B. James Deaton & Chad Lawley, 2022. "A survey of literature examining farmland prices: A Canadian focus," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 95-121, June.
    13. Pinto, Allan & Griffin, Terry W., 2022. "Detecting bubbles via single time-series variable: applying spatial specification tests to farmland values," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322534, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Widdows, Richard & Doll, John P., 1982. "Four Econometric Models of the U. S. Farmland Market: An Updating with Comparisons," Staff Reports 276744, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    15. Chen, Y. & Chen, K. & Zhong, F., 2018. "Farm Subsidy and Farmland Cash Rent under Rapid Urbanization: Evidence from Chinese Farm Household Panel 2004-2013," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277513, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Lowenberg-DeBoer, James M., 1985. "The impact of farmland price changes on farm size, financial structure enterprise choice," ISU General Staff Papers 198501010800009722, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sandrey, Ronald A. & Arthur, Louise M. & Oliveira, Ronald A. & Wilson, W. Robert, 1982. "Determinants Of Oregon Farmland Values: A Pooled Cross-Sectional, Time Series Analysis," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Miller, Stephen E., 1982. "Predicting Time Series Turning Points with Arima Models," Working Papers 116869, Clemson University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    3. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Shumway, C. Richard, 1982. "A Pooled Time-Series Cross-Section Analysis Of Land Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, July.
    4. Moore, Kevin Clare, 1985. "Predictive econometric modeling of the United States farmland market: an empirical test of the rational expectations hypothesis," ISU General Staff Papers 198501010800008872, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Offutt, Susan & Shoemaker, Robbin, 1989. "Distribution of Domestic Policy Benefits and the Willingness to Support Trade Liberalization," 1989 Occasional Paper Series No. 5 197669, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Oltmer, Katrin & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2001. "Impacts Of Agricultural Policy Reform On Land Prices: A Quantitative Analysis Of The Literature," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20507, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Oliveira, Ronald A. & O'Connor, Carl W. & Smith, Gary W., 1979. "Short-Run Forecasting Models Of Beef Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, July.
    8. Phipps, Tim, 1982. "Farmland Prices and the Return to Land: An Application of Causality Testing," 1982 Annual Meeting, August 1-4, Logan, Utah 279162, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Choumert, Johanna & Phélinas, Pascale, 2014. "A Hedonic Analysis Of Agricultural Land Values In A Gm Soybean Area Of Argentina," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182750, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Katchova, Ani L. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Barry, Peter J., 2002. "The Effects Of Risk On Farmland Values And Returns," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19660, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Graham, M. A. & Hayward, M. A., 1978. "Milk Production Costs in New South Wales: 1975-76," Archive 260390, New South Wales Department of Primary Industries Research Economists.
    12. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Stevens, Thomas H., 1979. "The Economics Of Outdoor Recreation Congestion: A Case Study Of Camping," Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-4, April.
    13. Lowenberg-DeBoer, James M., 1985. "The impact of farmland price changes on farm size, financial structure enterprise choice," ISU General Staff Papers 198501010800009722, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Danielson, Leon E., 1981. "The Rural Real Estate Market In North Carolina," Department of Economics and Business - Archive 259552, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Veeman, Michele M. & Veeman, Terrence S. & Dong, X.Y. & Sivasangaram, M., 1989. "Macro-Economic Influences on Alberta Agriculture," Project Report Series 232073, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    16. Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël, 2009. "Capitalization Of Government Support In Agricultural Land Prices: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 659-691, September.
    17. Barton, Nick & Adelaja, Adesoji O. & Seedang, Saichon, 2005. "Testing Speculative Behavior in Farmland Demand," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19308, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Brake, John R. & Melichar, Emanuel, 1977. "Agricultural Finance and Capital Markets," A Survey of Agricultural Economics Literature, Volume 1: Traditional Fields of Agricultural Economics 1940s to 1970s,, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Bergland, Olvar & Randall, Alan, 1984. "Land Prices, Capital Gains And The Returns To Farmland Ownership," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 279089, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Stam, Jerome M., 1995. "Credit as a Factor Influencing Farmland Values," Staff Reports 278779, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land Economics/Use;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32436. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/waeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.