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Forward Pricing Behavior of Corn and Soybean Producers

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  • Davis, Todd D.
  • Patrick, George F.
  • Coble, Keith H.
  • Knight, Thomas O.
  • Baquet, Alan E.

Abstract

Forward pricing behavior of random samples of Indiana, Nebraska, and Mississippi crop producers was analyzed using Heckman's two-step limited information maximum likelihood estimation procedure. Producers who forward priced during the 1995–1998 period generally expected to forward price in 1999 using similar techniques. Probit models were estimated for cash forward contracts and taking a direct position in futures or options separately and combined. Results provide limited support for the hypothesis that forward pricing should be analyzed as an adoption decision. Variables reflecting risk attitudes do affect the decision to use forward pricing, while variables related to economic position affect the level of forward pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, Todd D. & Patrick, George F. & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O. & Baquet, Alan E., 2005. "Forward Pricing Behavior of Corn and Soybean Producers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 145-160, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:37:y:2005:i:01:p:145-160_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Park, Timothy A. & Florkowski, Wojciech J., 1999. "Demand And Quality Uncertainty In Pecan Purchasing Decisions," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 1-11, April.
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    1. Xiaoli L. Etienne & Mindy L. Mallory & Scott H. Irwin, 2017. "Estimating the cost of pre‐harvest forward contracting corn and soybeans in Illinois before and after 2007," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 358-377, June.
    2. Mitchell, Paul D. & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O., 2010. "A Real Options Framework for Analyzing Program Participation as Human Capital Investments: The Case of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program," Staff Papers 92896, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    3. Rejesus, Roderick M. & Knight, Thomas O. & Jaramillo, Mauricio & Coble, Keith H. & Patrick, George F. & Baquet, Alan, 2008. "Preference for Risk Management Information Sources: Implications for Extension and Outreach Programming," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 106-116, April.
    4. Jordaan, Henry & Grove, Bennie, 2007. "Factors Affecting Maize Producers Adoption of Forward Pricing in Price Risk Management: The Case of Vaalharts," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 46(4), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Lusheng Shao & Derui Wang & Xiaole Wu, 2022. "Competitive trading in forward and spot markets under yield uncertainty," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(9), pages 3400-3418, September.
    6. Jacobs, Keri & Li, Ziran & Hayes, Dermot, 2016. "Price Responses in Forward Contracting: Do We Limit The Upside And Expose The Downside?," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800001017, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Panos Kouvelis & Guang Xiao & Nan Yang, 2021. "Role of Risk Aversion in Price Postponement Under Supply Random Yield," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 4826-4844, August.
    8. Aymeric Ricome & Arnaud Reynaud, 2022. "Marketing contract choices in agriculture: The role of price expectation and price risk management," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 170-186, January.
    9. Mofokeng, Maine & Vink, Nick, 2013. "Factors Affecting the Hedging Decision of Maize Farmers in Gauteng Province," 2013 Fourth International Conference, September 22-25, 2013, Hammamet, Tunisia 161465, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    10. Loughrey, J. & Thorne, F. & Kinsella, A. & Hennessy, T. & O'Donoghue, C. & Vollenweider, X., 2015. "Market risk management and the demand for forward contracts among Irish dairy farmers," International Journal of Agricultural Management, Institute of Agricultural Management, vol. 4(4), July.
    11. Jordaan, Henry & Grove, Bennie, 2008. "Factors affecting the use of forward pricing methods in price risk management with special reference to the influence of risk aversion," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(1), pages 1-14, March.

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