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Structural Change in Forward Contracting Costs for Kansas Wheat

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  • Taylor, Mykel
  • Tonsor, Glynn
  • Dhuyvetter, Kevin

Abstract

Farmers use forward contracts to eliminate adverse price and basis movements prior to harvest. Since late 2007, the local basis for Kansas wheat has changed dramatically relative to historic levels, causing greater risk exposure for elevators offering forward contracts. The result has been an increase in the cost of forward contracting paid by farmers from $0.086 per bushel to $0.327 per bushel. The factors driving this increase in costs are basis volatility, wheat futures harvest price, the information available in the market as harvest approaches, and realized returns to the elevator from forward contracting in previous years.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Mykel & Tonsor, Glynn & Dhuyvetter, Kevin, 2014. "Structural Change in Forward Contracting Costs for Kansas Wheat," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:186584
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.186584
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management In Agricultural Markets: A Survey," 2000 Producer Marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL 19580, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia & Darrel L. Good & Eugene L. Kunda, 2011. "Spreads and Non-Convergence in Chicago Board of Trade Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures: Are Index Funds to Blame?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 116-142.
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    5. Townsend, John P. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2000. "Cost of Forward Contracting Hard Red Winter Wheat," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 89-94, April.
    6. Stringer, Chris & Sanders, Dwight, 2006. "Forward Contracting Costs for Illinois Corn and Soybeans: Implications for Producer Pricing Strategies," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2006, pages 1-8.
    7. Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2006. "Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1-19, December.
    8. B. Wade Brorsen & John Coombs & Kim Anderson, 1995. "The cost of forward contracting wheat," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 349-354.
    9. Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1999. "Post-Harvest Grain Storing And Hedging With Efficient Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 1-24, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bekkerman, Anton & Brester, Gary W. & Taylor, Mykel, 2016. "Forecasting a Moving Target: The Roles of Quality and Timing for Determining Northern U.S. Wheat Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Xiaoli L. Etienne & Mindy L. Mallory & Scott H. Irwin, 2017. "Estimating the cost of pre‐harvest forward contracting corn and soybeans in Illinois before and after 2007," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 358-377, June.
    3. Loughrey, J. & Thorne, F. & Kinsella, A. & Hennessy, T. & O'Donoghue, C. & Vollenweider, X., 2015. "Market risk management and the demand for forward contracts among Irish dairy farmers," International Journal of Agricultural Management, Institute of Agricultural Management, vol. 4(4), July.
    4. Anton Bekkerman & Mykel Taylor, 2020. "The Role of Spatial Density and Technological Investment on Optimal Pricing Strategies in the Grain Handling Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(1), pages 27-58, August.
    5. Anton Bekkerman, 2021. "Quality forecasts: Predicting when and how much markets value higher‐protein wheat," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(4), pages 465-490, December.
    6. Bradley Isbell & Andrew M. McKenzie & B. Wade Brorsen, 2020. "The cost of forward contracting in the Mississippi barge freight river market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 226-241, April.

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    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries;

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