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Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis

Author

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  • Flavio Vilela Vieira
  • Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the role of real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility on export volume and also to address the impact of the international financial crisis of 2008. Design/methodology/approach - – The empirical methodology is based on System GMM estimation for a set of 106 countries for the period of 2000-2011. Findings - – For the complete sample of countries and for a set of developing/emerging economies, there is evidence that an increase (decrease) in REER volatility reduces (increases) export volume. The results are not robust once the oil export countries are removed from the sample. The estimated coefficients for the financial crisis dummy are positive and statistically significant, indicating that export volume were 0.14 percent higher after the financial crisis of 2008 compared to the previous period (2000-2007). There is also evidence that the export volume is price (REER) and income (trade weighted) inelastic. Research limitations/implications - – The empirical results are valid for the complete set of countries and for developing and emerging economies when including the oil export countries, suggesting that countries should reduce exchange rate volatility in order to foster their export volume and that oil export countries have an important role on these results. Practical implications - – The paper suggests that policymakers should adopt different policies to minimize exchange rate volatility if they seek to increase export volume. The international financial crisis had a significant impact on export volume in all estimated models regardless of the set of countries used. Originality/value - – One of the main novelties of this work is that it deals with possible endogeneity using GMM estimators and addresses the issue of instrument proliferation, which is not a common feature of previous empirical studies on exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Another original aspect of the research is the construction of trade weighted variables for foreign income and REER based on the major 20 export partners for each country used in the panel data estimation. The work also incorporates the years following the international financial crisis of 2008, which is an additional empirical novelty, in order to address the impact of the international financial crisis on the export volume.

Suggested Citation

  • Flavio Vilela Vieira & Ronald MacDonald, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(2), pages 203-221, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:43:y:2016:i:2:p:203-221
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-05-2014-0083
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Flavio Vilela Vieira & Cleomar Gomes Da Silva, 2018. "Brics Export Performance: An Ardl Bounds Testing Empirical Investigation," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 101, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Porcile, Gabriel & Sartorello Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano, 2020. "Patterns of growth in structuralist models: The role of the real exchange rate and industrial policy," MERIT Working Papers 2020-027, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. repec:zbw:iamodp:269555 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Karsten Staehr, 2021. "Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 204-217.
    5. Aamir Hussain Siddiqu & Syed Ammad Ali & UsmanAzhar, 2020. "Global Competitiveness and Potential for Higher Exports," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 17-29.
    6. M. W. A. De Silva & N. S. Cooray, 2022. "The Export Performance of the Sri Lankan Tea: An Econometric Analysis," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(4), pages 224-227, April.
    7. Duc Hong Vo & Anh The Vo & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2019. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Disaggregated Manufacturing Exports: Evidence from an Emerging Country," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, January.
    8. Aamir Hussain Siddiqu & Syed Ammad Ali & UsmanAzhar, 2020. "Global Competitiveness and Potential for Higher Exports," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 16-12.
    9. Muhammad Naveed Jamil & Abdul Rasheed & Adnan Maqbool & Zeeshan Mukhtar, 2023. "Cross-cultural study the macro variables and its impact on exchange rate regimes," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Porcile, Gabriel & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano, 2021. "Patterns of Growth in Structuralist Models: The Role of PoliticalEconomy," CAFE Working Papers 12, Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.
    11. Gor A. Khachatryan & Aleksandr Grigoryan, 2020. "Export Growth Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Armenia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 493-509, July.
    12. Ekundayo Peter Mesagan & Kolawole Kushimo & Dominic Ikoh Umar, 2021. "Do fluctuations in exchange rate hinder non-oil export? An analysis of agriculture and manufacturing in Nigeria," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(11), pages 1-23, November.
    13. Hussaini Umaru & Aguda Niyi A. & Nordiana Osagie Davies, 2018. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth of West African English-Speaking Countries," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 8(4), pages 131-143, October.
    14. Tamer Rawashdeh & Mahmoud Al-Rdaydeh & Basem Hamouri, 2020. "The Effect of International Currency Crises on the Balance of Payments: Evidence From Jordan," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(5), pages 275-284, October.
    15. Rashid Latief & Lin Lefen, 2018. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Developing Countries along “One Belt and One Road”," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, October.
    16. Hao-Chang Yang & Ferry Syarifuddin & Chun-Ping Chang & Hai-Jie Wang, 2022. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Futures Fluctuations on Macroeconomy: Evidence from Ten Trading Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(8), pages 2300-2313, June.
    17. Heidi Aly & Rana Hosni, 2018. "Examining the nexus between exchange rate volatility and export performance: Empirical evidence from the Egyptian experience," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(3), pages 542-560, June.
    18. Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr & Glauben, Thomas, 2017. "Russian food and agricultural import ban: The impact on the domestic market for cattle, pork and poultry," IAMO Discussion Papers 269555, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    19. Flavio Vilela Vieira & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2021. "What drives export performance in the BRICS countries? An ARDL investigation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 686-695.
    20. Abubakar, Fahrurrazi & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Palm oil export : is it price led or exchange rate led? evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 111229, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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