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Global Ageing and Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Uncertainty in a Multi-Regional Model

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  • Juha Alho
  • vladimir Borgy

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the impact of demographic uncertainty in a multi-regional general equilibrium, overlapping generations model (INGENUE 2). Specifically, we will consider the level of uncertainty in each of the ten major regions of the world, and their correlation across regions. In order to address these issues, we produce stochastic simulations of the world population for the ten regions until 2050. Then, we will analyse the economic consequences on a path by path basis over the period 2000-2050. These simulations allow us to assess the uncertainty induced into key macro-economic variables, the GDP growth rate and the world interest rate in particular, by uncertain future demographics. We show that the assumptions regarding interregional correlations of forecast errors are important in our model: they have a large impact on the uncertainty of the macroeconomic variables, and it appears that the macroeconomic adjustments can differ substantially if we consider independence or high correlation across the regions. In particular, the macroeconomic behaviour of the agents in the current account/saving problem differs significantly across regions according to the degree of interregional correlation.
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Suggested Citation

  • Juha Alho & vladimir Borgy, 2007. "Global Ageing and Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Uncertainty in a Multi-Regional Model," Working Papers 2007-09, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
    2. Finn E. Kydland (ed.), 1995. "Business Cycle Theory," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 565.
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    Cited by:

    1. Didier Blanchet & Florence Legros, 2008. "Démographie : tendances, incertitudes, implications," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 59(5), pages 861-868.
    2. Vladimir Borgy & Xavier Chojnicki, 2009. "Labor Migration: Macroeconomic and Demographic Outlook for Europe and Neighborhood Regions," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 119, pages 115-153.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    INGENUE; cgem; Demography; Capital markets; Demoeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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