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Wie schwer fällt es Manager*innen, den Verlauf zukünftiger Geschäfte vorherzusagen? Das neue Maß der ifo Geschäftsunsicherheit

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Lautenbacher
  • Stefan Sauer
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Seit der globalen Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise wurden zur Messung von Unsicherheit viele Proxy-Maße entwickelt. Entscheidend für die Auswirkung von Unsicherheit auf wirtschaftliche Entscheidungen und die Konjunktur ist jedoch in den meisten Fällen die tatsächlich wahrgenommene Unsicherheit von Marktteilnehmern. Dieser Artikel stellt das neue Maß der ifo Geschäftsunsicherheit vor, das misst, wie schwer es Manager*innen fällt, den Verlauf der zukünftigen Geschäftsentwicklung ihres Unternehmens vorherzusagen. Erste Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Unsicherheit unter den Unternehmen zu Beginn der Coronakrise deutlich angestiegen ist. Seitdem ist sie etwas gesunken, aber sie verbleibt auf erhöhtem Niveau. Neben einer Betrachtung nach Wirtschaftssektoren wird das neue Maß mit einem weiteren Unsicherheitsindikator verglichen und dem ifo Geschäftsklimaindex gegenübergestellt. Das neue Unsicherheitsmaß liefert einen Beitrag zur Einschätzung aktueller konjunktureller Entwicklungen und wird ab sofort regelmäßig in den Pressemitteilungen zum ifo Geschäftsklimaindex dokumentiert.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Lautenbacher & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Wie schwer fällt es Manager*innen, den Verlauf zukünftiger Geschäfte vorherzusagen? Das neue Maß der ifo Geschäftsunsicherheit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(12), pages 32-35, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:73:y:2020:i:12:p:32-35
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2020. "Subjective Uncertainty, Expectations, and Firm Behavior," MPRA Paper 103516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    3. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    4. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    5. Kozeniauskas, Nicholas & Orlik, Anna & Veldkamp, Laura, 2018. "What are uncertainty shocks?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-15.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Management; Unternehmen; Risiko; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • L21 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Business Objectives of the Firm
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

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