IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v73y2020i12p.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

»Lockdown light« lässt Kurzarbeit im November wieder etwas ansteigen

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Link
  • Stefan Sauer

Abstract

Die Zahl der Beschäftigten in Kurzarbeit in Deutschland ist nach Schätzung des ifo Instituts im November erstmals seit Mai wieder etwas gestiegen. Demnach dürften etwa 2,0 Millionen Personen in Kurzarbeit gewesen sein (5,9% der sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten), nachdem es im Oktober schätzungsweise 1,8 Millionen Personen waren (5,4%). Der Anstieg ist vor allem auf die Wirtschaftsbereiche zurückzuführen, die vom seit Anfang November geltenden »Lockdown light« betroffen sind. Im Gastgewerbe dürfte sich die Zahl der Kurzarbeiter im Vergleich zum Vormonat mehr als verdoppelt haben. Auch im Handel war ein leichter Anstieg zu verzeichnen. Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe sank der Anteil der Beschäftigten in Kurzarbeit dagegen erneut und dürfte nun erstmals seit Beginn der Coronakrise unter der 10%-Marke liegen. Die Schätzungen beruhen auf der monatlichen Konjunkturumfrage des ifo Instituts unter ca. 7 000 Unternehmen. Die Schätzmethode wurde im Vergleich zu den Vormonaten revidiert. Infolgedessen wurden die Schätzungen für Oktober, für den das ifo Institut ursprünglich von 3,3 Millionen Kurzarbeitern ausging, und die übrigen vorhergehenden Monate nach unten korrigiert.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer, 2020. "»Lockdown light« lässt Kurzarbeit im November wieder etwas ansteigen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(12), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:73:y:2020:i:12:p:
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2020-12-link-sauer-kurzarbeit-november.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2020. "Subjective Uncertainty, Expectations, and Firm Behavior," MPRA Paper 103516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    3. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    4. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    5. Kozeniauskas, Nicholas & Orlik, Anna & Veldkamp, Laura, 2018. "What are uncertainty shocks?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-15.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Kloiber & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Andreas Peichl, 2021. "Städte sind stärker von den wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Coronakrise betroffen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(05), pages 53-58, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefan Lautenbacher & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Wie schwer fällt es Manager*innen, den Verlauf zukünftiger Geschäfte vorherzusagen? Das neue Maß der ifo Geschäftsunsicherheit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(12), pages 32-35, December.
    2. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    3. Claveria, Oscar, 2022. "Global economic uncertainty and suicide: Worldwide evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    4. Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2020. "Subjective Uncertainty, Expectations, and Firm Behavior," MPRA Paper 103516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?," PIER Discussion Papers 130, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Altig, David & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J. & Meyer, Brent & Parker, Nicholas, 2022. "Surveying business uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 282-303.
    7. Bonciani, Dario & Oh, Joonseok Jason, 2019. "The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks," Bank of England working papers 802, Bank of England.
    8. Sangyup Choi & Jeeyeon Phi, 2022. "Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on Income and Wealth Inequality," Working papers 2022rwp-196, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    9. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.
    10. Nicholas Apergis, 2022. "Evaluating tail risks for the U.S. economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3971-3989, October.
    11. Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl, 2019. "Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures," WIFO Working Papers 576, WIFO.
    12. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
    13. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    14. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    16. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    17. Yuan, Di & Li, Sufang & Li, Rong & Zhang, Feipeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil and stock markets in BRIC: Evidence from quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    18. Carmen Orden‐Cruz & Jessica Paule‐Vianez & Júlio Lobão, 2023. "The effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the credit risk of US commercial banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3420-3436, July.
    19. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Impact of global uncertainty on the global economy and large developed and developing economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(22), pages 2392-2407, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unterbeschäftigung; Beschäftigte; Branchenentwicklung; Epidemie; Kurzarbeit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:73:y:2020:i:12:p:. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.