IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v72y2019i20p.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Verschenkter Wohlstand? Handelseffekte der chinesischen Yuan-Abwertung

Author

Listed:
  • Martin T. Braml
  • Marina Steininger

Abstract

Die jüngste Abwertung der chinesischen Währung als Folge des andauernden Handels¬streits mit den USA hat auch Auswirkungen auf Europa. Bei einer 10%igen Abwertung des Yuan würde Deutschland 413 Mio. Euro Realeinkommen gewinnen, bei einer 20igen Abwertung sogar 499 Mio . Euro im Jahr, wie aus Berechnungen des ifo-Handelsmodells hervorgeht. Für die restliche EU (ohne Deutschland) belaufen sich die Einkommenszuwächse auf 1,9 bis 2,8 Mrd. Euro. Die Abwertung geht mit Einkommens-verlusten für die chinesische Volkswirtschaft einher und senkt gleichzeitig die Kosten des Handelsstreits für die USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin T. Braml & Marina Steininger, 2019. "Verschenkter Wohlstand? Handelseffekte der chinesischen Yuan-Abwertung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(20), October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:20:p:
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2019-20-braml-steininger-yuan-abwertung-2019-10-24_6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Redding, Stephen & Amiti, Mary & Weinstein, David, 2019. "The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S. prices and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102619, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Gabriel Felbermayr & Marina Steininger, 2019. "Trump’s trade attack on China − who will have the last laugh?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(01), pages 27-32, April.
    3. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2014. "Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP," CESifo Working Paper Series 5150, CESifo.
    4. Martin Braml & Gabriel Felbermayr & Lucia Wilbert, 2018. "Exportieren Länder mit Leistungsbilanzüberschüssen Arbeitslosigkeit?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(16), pages 20-25, August.
    5. Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2018. "Who is Paying for the Trade War with China?," EconPol Policy Brief 11, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin T. Braml & Marina Steininger, 2020. "Giving Away Wealth? Trade Effects of the Yuan Devaluation," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(04), pages 32-35, January.
    2. Bekkers, Eddy & Schroeter, Sofia, 2020. "An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    3. Gabriel Felbermayr & Marina Steininger, 2019. "Trump’s trade attack on China − who will have the last laugh?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(01), pages 27-32, April.
    4. Fiorentini, Riccardo, 2020. "The Persisting US Trade Deficit: Is Protectionistm the Right Answer?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(2), pages 155-186.
    5. Laurence Wicht, 2019. "The impact of trade tensions on Switzerland: A quantitative assessment," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 70(01), pages 1-34, December.
    6. Alessandro Barattieri & Matteo Cacciatore, 2023. "Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 97-128, April.
    7. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2016. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership Deal (TPP): What Are the Economic Consequences for In- and Outsiders?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(04), pages 53-64, January.
    8. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng & Edward Tang, 2020. "Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations," Globalization Institute Working Papers 380, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Benedikt Heid & Frank Stähler, 2024. "Disentangling Frictions Across the World: Markups Versus Trade Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 11420, CESifo.
    10. Evgeny N. Smirnov & Sergey A. Lukyanov, 2021. "Instability of international trade and approaches to optimal regulation," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 12(5), pages 21-31, November.
    11. Julia Seiermann, 2018. "Only Words? How Power in Trade Agreement Texts Affects International Trade Flows," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 80, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    12. Ricardo Correa & Julian di Giovanni & Linda S. Goldberg & Camelia Minoiu, 2023. "Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending," NBER Working Papers 31860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Malgouyres, Clément & Mayer, Thierry & Mazet-Sonilhac, Clément, 2021. "Technology-induced trade shocks? Evidence from broadband expansion in France," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik & Tomasz K. Michalski & Evren Ors, 2024. "Financial Constraints and Propagation of Shocks in Production Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 437-454, March.
    15. Holger Breinlich & Dennis Novy & J. M. C. Santos Silva, 2024. "Trade, Gravity, and Aggregation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1418-1426, September.
    16. Iliev, Dragomir & Stefanov, Galin & Yotov, Yoto, 2016. "Estimating Bulgaria’S Trade Borders With The Eu An Application Of The Empirical Gravity Model Of Trade," Business Management, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 1-3.
    17. Haiou Mao & Holger Görg, 2020. "Friends like this: The impact of the US–China trade war on global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1776-1791, July.
    18. Vasilios Plakandaras & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Forecasting Bitcoin Returns: Is there a Role for the U.S. – China Trade War?," Working Papers 201980, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Gabriel Felbermayr & Clemens Fuest & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Daniel Stöhlker, 2017. "Economic Effects of Brexit on the European Economy," EconPol Policy Reports 4, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    20. Milsom, Luke & Pažitka, Vladimír & Roland, Isabelle & Wójcik, Dariusz, 2023. "The gravity of syndication ties in international equity underwriting," Bank of England working papers 1021, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Währung; Handelseffekte; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:20:p:. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.