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Supply chain adjustments to tariff shocks: Evidence from firm trade linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war

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  • Handley, Kyle
  • Kamal, Fariha
  • Monarch, Ryan

Abstract

We use the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war to examine how supply chains adjustments to a tariff cost shock affect imports. Using confidential trade data, we show that the decline in U.S. imports of tariffed goods during the trade war was driven primarily by the exit of firms from import markets, discontinued buyer–supplier relationships, and reduced entry into importing. However, tariffed products where imports were concentrated in fewer suppliers exhibited smaller declines in import growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Handley, Kyle & Kamal, Fariha & Monarch, Ryan, 2024. "Supply chain adjustments to tariff shocks: Evidence from firm trade linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:244:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524004932
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112009
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    1. Redding, Stephen & Amiti, Mary & Weinstein, David, 2019. "The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S. prices and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102619, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Fariha Kamal & Wei Ouyang, 2020. "Identifying U.S. Merchandise Traders: Integrating Customs Transactions with Business Administrative Data," Working Papers 20-28, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    3. Mike Waugh, 2019. "The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks," 2019 Meeting Papers 1226, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Feenstra, Robert C. & Jensen, J. Bradford, 2012. "Evaluating estimates of materials offshoring from US manufacturing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 170-173.
    5. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    6. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    7. Michael E. Waugh, 2019. "The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks: Evidence from the US-China Trade War," NBER Working Papers 26353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Monarch, Ryan & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2023. "Longevity and the value of trade relationships," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Oh, Saera & Lim, Sunghun, 2024. "Geopolitical Risks and Agricultural Trade Diversification in Southern Africa: Port-level Evidence from the Russia-UkraineWar," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343735, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global supply chains; Strategic products; Tariffs; Trade war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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