IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/usg/auswrt/201970011-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of trade tensions on Switzerland: A quantitative assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Laurence Wicht

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impact of trade tensions between the United States and China. Using a general equilibrium Ricardian trade model, it provides a Swiss-centric analysis of two tariff escalation shocks. Counterfactual analysis shows that welfare and trade effects are broadly negative for the United States and China. In contrast, both tariff escalation shocks could lead to a small increase in real GDP in Switzerland. The labor productivity of Swiss manufacturing sectors increases slightly, especially in sectors that are well-connected to China. While trade collapses between the United States and China, Swiss real exports to the United States in selected sectors increase significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Wicht, 2019. "The impact of trade tensions on Switzerland: A quantitative assessment," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 70(01), pages 1-34, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:auswrt:2019:70:01:1-34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/auswrt/AW_70-01__01_Wicht.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte, 2018. "The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2042-2096.
    2. Redding, Stephen & Amiti, Mary & Weinstein, David, 2019. "The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S. prices and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102619, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2016. "The Effects of Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 21957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Edward J. Balistreri & Christoph Böhringer & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2018. "Quantifying Disruptive Trade Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7382, CESifo.
    5. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    6. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2019. "Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-18, CEPII research center.
    7. Christian Hepenstrick, 2016. "The Sources and Magnitudes of Switzerland's Gains from Trade," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 152(I), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Karyne B. Charbonneau & Anthony Landry, 2018. "The Trade War in Numbers," Staff Working Papers 18-57, Bank of Canada.
    9. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2019. "Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-18, CEPII research center.
    10. Carlos Caceres & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Rui Mano, 2019. "Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model," IMF Working Papers 2019/143, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    12. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    13. Gabriel Felbermayr & Marina Steininger, 2019. "Trump’s trade attack on China − who will have the last laugh?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(01), pages 27-32, April.
    14. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    15. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Marcel Timmer & Gaaitzen de Vries, 2013. "The Construction Of World Input-Output Tables In The Wiod Project," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 71-98, March.
    16. Robert Dekle & Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2008. "Global Rebalancing with Gravity: Measuring the Burden of Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 511-540, July.
    17. Ralph Ossa, 2016. "Quantitative Models of Commercial Policy," NBER Working Papers 22062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Laurence Wicht, 2020. "A multi-sector analysis of Switzerland's gains from trade," Working Papers 2020-20, Swiss National Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cappariello, Rita & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Gunnella, Vanessa & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., 2020. "Rising protectionism and global value chains: quantifying the general equilibrium effects," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108423, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Sanyal, Anirban, 2023. "Caught in the Crossfire: How Trade Policy Uncertainty Impacts Global Trade," EconStor Preprints 272825, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Lashkaripour, Ahmad, 2021. "The cost of a global tariff war: A sufficient statistics approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Dr. Laurence Wicht, 2020. "A multi-sector analysis of Switzerland's gains from trade," Working Papers 2020-20, Swiss National Bank.
    5. Bekkers, Eddy & Schroeter, Sofia, 2020. "An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    6. Li, Minghao & Balistreri, Edward J. & Zhang, Wendong, 2020. "The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    8. Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2018. "Why Is Pollution from US Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3814-3854, December.
    9. Haiou Mao & Holger Görg, 2020. "Friends like this: The impact of the US–China trade war on global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1776-1791, July.
    10. Kohler Wilhelm & Jung Benjamin, 2017. "Wie vorteilhaft ist internationaler Handel?: Ein neuer Ansatz zur Vermessung der Gewinne," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 32-55, April.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Bartelme, Dominick & Lan, Ting & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2024. "Specialization, market access and real income," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    14. Inga Heiland, 2017. "Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows and the Gains from Globalization," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 74.
    15. Dr. Laurence Wicht, 2020. "The margin of importing sectors in the gains from trade," Working Papers 2020-07, Swiss National Bank.
    16. Pothen, Frank & Hübler, Michael, 2018. "The interaction of climate and trade policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-26.
    17. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Evaluating international impacts of China-specific shocks in an input-output framework," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    18. Lorenzo CALIENDO & Maximiliano DVORKIN & Fernando PARRO, 2016. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics," Discussion papers 16050, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Foellmi, Reto & Hepenstrick, Christian & Torun, David, 2022. "Triangle Inequalities in International Trade: The Neglected Dimension," CEPR Discussion Papers 17118, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    21. Lorenzo Caliendo & Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis & Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Tariff Reductions, Entry, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for the Last Two Decades," NBER Working Papers 21768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    gains from trade; tariffs; trade wars;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usg:auswrt:2019:70:01:1-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stefan Legge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/siasrch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.