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Exportieren Länder mit Leistungsbilanzüberschüssen Arbeitslosigkeit?

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Braml
  • Gabriel Felbermayr
  • Lucia Wilbert

Abstract

Häufig wird behauptet, Länder mit hohen Leistungsbilanzüberschüssen seien für Arbeitslosigkeit in anderen Ländern verantwortlich. Der Beitrag betrachtet bedingte Korrelationen zwischen den beiden Größen und findet keine Hinweise, dass die Daten eine solche Behauptung rechtfertigen könnten: Es fehlen sowohl schlüssige theoretische wie auch empirische Argumente dafür, dass ein Anstieg des Leistungsbilanzsaldos oder der Nettoexporte mit einem generellen Absinken der Arbeitslosenrate verbunden wäre. Der Schluss, Länder mit hohen Überschüssen bereicherten sich (am Arbeitsmarkt) auf Kosten der Defizitländer, scheint mit den Daten nicht vereinbar zu sein. Im Gegenteil, es sieht so aus, also seien wachsende Leistungsbilanzsalden eher mit zunehmender Arbeitslosigkeit korreliert.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Braml & Gabriel Felbermayr & Lucia Wilbert, 2018. "Exportieren Länder mit Leistungsbilanzüberschüssen Arbeitslosigkeit?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(16), pages 20-25, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:16:p:20-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2014. "The Rise Of The East And The Far East: German Labor Markets And Trade Integration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1643-1675, December.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    3. Badinger, Harald & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2017. "Trade exposure of Western Europe to China and Eastern Europe: A spatial econometric analysis of the effects on regional manufacturing employment from 1991-2011," Working Papers 06/2017, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    4. Gabriel Felbermayr & Martin Braml, 2018. "On the EU-US Current Account," EconPol Policy Reports 7, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin T. Braml & Marina Steininger, 2019. "Verschenkter Wohlstand? Handelseffekte der chinesischen Yuan-Abwertung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(20), October.
    2. Martin T. Braml & Marina Steininger, 2020. "Giving Away Wealth? Trade Effects of the Yuan Devaluation," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(04), pages 32-35, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leistungsbilanz; Arbeitslosigkeit; Korrelation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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